When Barack Obama's vice-presidential selection team--that is, Eric Holder, a former deputy attorney general, and Caroline Kennedy, a Kennedy--began the formal vetting process this week by asking an estimated eight to 10 candidates for information and documents, most presumably complied. Or at least they didn't publicly refuse. Except, that is, for a certain ornery sonofabitch senator from Virginia named Jim Webb. Last week, according to the Atlantic's Marc Ambinder, Holder and Kennedy sent over "a list of what they needed to begin their investigation of his background and career." Webb's response? First he told the pair "that he did not want to be considered for the position." Then, in case he hadn't made himself clear, he released a statement to reporters saying that he had "communicated to Senator Obama and his presidential campaign my firm intention to remain in the United States Senate" and would "under no circumstances... be a candidate for Vice President." Sources say that from now on Webb plans to cover his ears and start singing "The Banana Song" every time the topic comes up in conversation.

Webb's Shermanesque refusal to enter the vice-presidential ring disappointed plenty of people, I'm sure--Obama, Virginia Republicans, his mother Vera. But none were quite as peeved, I think, as the participants in political futures markets. For those of you who aren't quite as geeky as Stumper, a political futures market is a forum where thousands of traders buy and sell shares in future political events, using information and intuition to predict whether those events will come to pass. While each individual may not know much, collectively they know a lot. The market aggregates this knowledge, then reflects it, in real time, in the form of prices. Historically, market projections have actually been more accurate than polls, outperforming traditional surveys in recent elections three-quarters of the time. So, as silly as it sounds, it was pretty significant that Webb had been, until this week, the highest-priced contender on Intrade, the leading political futures market. While his closest competitors hovered near 10 (which represents a 10 percent chance of veephood, according to the "wisdom of crowds") the Virginia senator held steady at a frontrunning 20-22--his value as recently as July 2. Now, however, he's down to 1.9--and a lot of traders are out a lot of "money."

Which raises an interesting question: with Webb kaput--and individual investors free to take their funds elsewhere--who's the market's new favorite veep prospect? A handful of hopefuls have gained in the past 24 hours or so. On the one hand, there's former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn (up 2.6 points to 6.0), who probably benefits from the loss of the field's only other white, Southern, centrist foreign-policy pro. Then there are what I'll call the "crossover contenders": 1) New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg (up 0.4 to 4.0), who would boost Obama's moderate cred, and 2) Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel (up 3.4 to 10.0), a Republican who would shore up the nominee's national-security soft spot and accentuate his bipartisan message. (Possible reason for the Hagel surge: reports that he'll visit Iraq with Obama later this month.) Like Webb, both Bloomberg and Hagel would be "untraditional" picks--which may explain why they've become more attractive to traders in his absence.

But neither, it seems, is quite as untraditional as Intrade's top two prospects--both of whom happen to be women. First up is Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius--a moderate like Webb--who has skyrocketed 5.6 points in the past day (the most in the field) to a silver-worthy 11.2 overall. And then, finally, there's the new post-Webb number one.

That's right, sports fans. Up 2.6 to 15.4, Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York has now taken the lead.

Apparently, Intrade has a dream.