
Click the image for an interactive graphic on Obama's trip.
Also from the print edition of NEWSWEEK: leading pundits from the countries he'll visit—and three more he should—offer suggestions for the future. I've posted a few below; click here for the rest.
1. Germany: Too Much Hope
By Josef Joffe
For
Barack Obama, the good news is also bad news: if he ran in Germany
today, he would win by a landslide, with 67 percent of the vote. Why is
this bad news? Because hell hath no fury like a nation disenchanted, to
borrow from the old English play "The Mourning Bride."
Germany's
Obamamania has disappointment written all over it, for two reasons. One
is President George W. Bush. Somehow, the chattering class has decided
that W is a cross between a demon and a dolt, a one-man Axis of Evil
with a room-temperature IQ. Hence the derision and the contempt they
direct at him; hence, also, a scapegoat fantasy that confuses the man
with his country. Once we finally pack off Bush, so the wishful
thinking goes, we will be able to love America again.
Alas,
Germany's and Europe's problems with America run a lot deeper than
that. W is just shorthand for overweening power; it's Mr. Big and not
Mr. Bush that irks the European soul. It is power liberally used—and
not, as in Iraq, always used with the say-so of the lesser players. It
is America as a league of its own, a giant who will not reflexively
submit to the dictates of goodness by which Europe (give or take
Britain or France) now lives. At any rate, anti-Americanism is older
than Bush, and it will outlive him. In fact, it will last as long as
the United States remains No. 1—the world's steamroller of might and
modernity.
The second source of disillusionment will be
Obama himself. Once inaugurated, the Savior & Redeemer will be
president of the über-power that is the United
States. He will be more multilateralist than was Bush in his first
term, and he will speak more softly. But he will still carry the
biggest stick on earth. Germans might want to read the foreign-policy
chapter in Obama's book "Hoffnung wagen" ("The Audacity of Hope").
There are paragraphs in there that are pure Bush doctrine. On
pre-emption: "We have the right to take unilateral military action to
eliminate an imminent threat to our security." On American power:
"There will be times when we must again play the role of the world's
reluctant sheriff. This will not change—nor should it."
Obama
can change the tune of U.S. foreign policy. But he can't get rid of the
brass and the kettledrums, so when he visits, he might gently prepare
Berlin for the dissonances to come. Such as when, for instance, the
next president asks Berlin for more combat troops in Afghanistan, where
the Bundeswehr would rather drill wells and build schools.
Joffeis publisher-editor of Die Zeit in Hamburg. His latest book is"Überpower: The Imperial Temptation of America"(2006).
2. Iraq: Time to Go
By Ali A. Allawi
It's
natural that Barack Obama should see Iraq through the prism of U.S.
involvement there and its implications for America's domestic affairs.
But that can't be the basis for building a new U.S. policy. The turmoil
that has engulfed Iraq for nearly 50 years has deeply scarred the Iraqi
people. We have suffered from wars, mass expulsions, genocidal killings
and sanctions—and, most recently, from the chaos that followed the
U.S.-led invasion of 2003. Since then, hundreds of thousands of Iraqis
have been killed and millions have become refugees.
Obama
should realize that the picture of Iraq he'll get from meetings with
military commanders, U.S. diplomats and senior Iraqi leaders will be
incomplete, offering him only a glimpse of the country's true
conditions. It's true that there have recently been salutary
developments on the security front. The levels of violence and
instability are well below the dark days of 2006 and 2007. But the
convulsions of the post-invasion period aren't over, and represent a
continuation of a pattern that has bedeviled Iraq for a long time. That
pattern features misgovernment, wasted resources and difficulties
reaching a consensual political framework. The invasion of Iraq
basically destroyed the old Iraqi state. And the new order is now being
held hostage to factional politics and power grabs. The country is
being chaotically and venally administered by remnants of the old
bureaucratic class in partnership with returning exiles. The Iraqi
security forces—the Army, national guards, tribal levies and
police—have improved security, but it's unclear where their loyalties
lie. If the new order fails to improve conditions soon, Iraqis may well
turn once again to proverbial "men on horseback."
Iraq's
citizens yearn for a normal, dignified life. They are a fiercely proud
people and will not accept the long-term presence of foreign troops.
Iraqis do not want to be party to agreements that could create tensions
and drag them into conflicts with their neighbors. It's therefore time
to refashion the U.S. presence in Iraq. Washington should adopt a
policy of "constructive disengagement." This will require changing the
focus of the American-Iraqi relationship, away from military and
security issues and toward political and economic ones. Troop levels
should be rapidly drawn down. The United States should then concentrate
on supporting Iraqis as they build a fair and representative political
order, and should help us create the institutions and policies needed
to underpin it.
Allawi served as Iraq's minister of Finance
from 2005 to 2006 and is the author of "The Occupation of Iraq: Winning
the War, Losing the Peace."
3. Afghanistan: A Thirst for Justice
By Ashraf Ghani
In
The Afghan worldview, justice is the foundation of order. Our languages
are suffused with the notion that while prayer can save a single soul,
justice can save the world. Our people saw the attacks of 9/11 as acts
of injustice, and in the days that followed, we welcomed the deployment
of international forces to Afghanistan, as well as the rebuilding of
our state under the Bonn process. At first, thousands of Afghans who
had devoted their lives to fighting the Soviet Red Army supported the
arrival of foreign troops in 2001, and the United States enjoyed
exceptional popularity. Children played with the visiting soldiers in
the streets of Kabul, our capital city.
But
Washington—and Senator Obama when he visits—should recognize that the
international presence in Afghanistan has now reached a tipping point.
The Afghans are frustrated by the waste and lack of transparency in the
international aid system and the failure to invest in institutions of
higher learning. Government corruption and mismanagement are
increasing. Afghans are becoming increasingly skeptical about the
Coalition's commitment to our rebuilding. Growing violence, especially
civilian casualties (many inflicted by the international forces) are
making us feel less secure. So are rising food prices and a
youth-unemployment rate of 40 to 60 percent.
Obama
should understand that the current state of affairs was not inevitable
and is reversible. An Afghan-led strategy for state-building yielded
both stability and legitimacy between 2002 and 2005. A series of
comprehensive national programs, ranging from rural development to a
national army to modern telecommunications, were put in place. Both
NATO and U.S. forces have recently articulated a counterinsurgency
doctrine that puts statecraft at the heart of winning the consent of
the people. This shift in strategic thinking supports the Afghan world
view that justice and rule of law are the keys to a legitimate order.
What
we need now from Obama or whoever becomes the next U.S. president is
something similar to the Marshall Plan that helped rebuild Europe 60
years ago. A medium- to long-term regional initiative that removes
terrorist sanctuaries and leads to full economic cooperation between
South and Central Asia would help Afghanistan regain its crucial
position as a central node of communication in the region. Credible
supervision mechanisms are needed to make the forthcoming presidential
election free and fair. The narcotics and terrorism problems require
the integration of development and security strategies. We need a
systematic overhaul of our police and our judiciary, and efforts to
rebuild state capability at all levels of government.
The
Afghan people are ready to believe again. We are waiting for
statesmanship, forged in the best American tradition, to overcome past
neglect and help us create an Afghan state that is stable and
legitimate at home and respected abroad.
Ghani,the former Finance minister of Afghanistan, is chairman of the Institute of State Effectiveness.