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Posted Monday, July 21, 2008 1:30 PM

Advice for Obama

Andrew Romano


Click the image for an interactive graphic on Obama's trip. 

Also from the print edition of NEWSWEEK: leading pundits from the countries he'll visit—and three more he should—offer suggestions for the future. I've posted a few below; click here for the rest.

1. Germany: Too Much Hope
By Josef Joffe

For Barack Obama, the good news is also bad news: if he ran in Germany today, he would win by a landslide, with 67 percent of the vote. Why is this bad news? Because hell hath no fury like a nation disenchanted, to borrow from the old English play "The Mourning Bride."

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Germany's Obamamania has disappointment written all over it, for two reasons. One is President George W. Bush. Somehow, the chattering class has decided that W is a cross between a demon and a dolt, a one-man Axis of Evil with a room-temperature IQ. Hence the derision and the contempt they direct at him; hence, also, a scapegoat fantasy that confuses the man with his country. Once we finally pack off Bush, so the wishful thinking goes, we will be able to love America again.

Alas, Germany's and Europe's problems with America run a lot deeper than that. W is just shorthand for overweening power; it's Mr. Big and not Mr. Bush that irks the European soul. It is power liberally used—and not, as in Iraq, always used with the say-so of the lesser players. It is America as a league of its own, a giant who will not reflexively submit to the dictates of goodness by which Europe (give or take Britain or France) now lives. At any rate, anti-Americanism is older than Bush, and it will outlive him. In fact, it will last as long as the United States remains No. 1—the world's steamroller of might and modernity.

The second source of disillusionment will be Obama himself. Once inaugurated, the Savior & Redeemer will be president of the über-power that is the United States. He will be more multilateralist than was Bush in his first term, and he will speak more softly. But he will still carry the biggest stick on earth. Germans might want to read the foreign-policy chapter in Obama's book "Hoffnung wagen" ("The Audacity of Hope"). There are paragraphs in there that are pure Bush doctrine. On pre-emption: "We have the right to take unilateral military action to eliminate an imminent threat to our security." On American power: "There will be times when we must again play the role of the world's reluctant sheriff. This will not change—nor should it."

Obama can change the tune of U.S. foreign policy. But he can't get rid of the brass and the kettledrums, so when he visits, he might gently prepare Berlin for the dissonances to come. Such as when, for instance, the next president asks Berlin for more combat troops in Afghanistan, where the Bundeswehr would rather drill wells and build schools.

Joffeis publisher-editor of Die Zeit in Hamburg. His latest book is"Überpower: The Imperial Temptation of America"(2006).

2. Iraq: Time to Go
By Ali A. Allawi

It's natural that Barack Obama should see Iraq through the prism of U.S. involvement there and its implications for America's domestic affairs. But that can't be the basis for building a new U.S. policy. The turmoil that has engulfed Iraq for nearly 50 years has deeply scarred the Iraqi people. We have suffered from wars, mass expulsions, genocidal killings and sanctions—and, most recently, from the chaos that followed the U.S.-led invasion of 2003. Since then, hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have been killed and millions have become refugees.

Obama should realize that the picture of Iraq he'll get from meetings with military commanders, U.S. diplomats and senior Iraqi leaders will be incomplete, offering him only a glimpse of the country's true conditions. It's true that there have recently been salutary developments on the security front. The levels of violence and instability are well below the dark days of 2006 and 2007. But the convulsions of the post-invasion period aren't over, and represent a continuation of a pattern that has bedeviled Iraq for a long time. That pattern features misgovernment, wasted resources and difficulties reaching a consensual political framework. The invasion of Iraq basically destroyed the old Iraqi state. And the new order is now being held hostage to factional politics and power grabs. The country is being chaotically and venally administered by remnants of the old bureaucratic class in partnership with returning exiles. The Iraqi security forces—the Army, national guards, tribal levies and police—have improved security, but it's unclear where their loyalties lie. If the new order fails to improve conditions soon, Iraqis may well turn once again to proverbial "men on horseback."

Iraq's citizens yearn for a normal, dignified life. They are a fiercely proud people and will not accept the long-term presence of foreign troops. Iraqis do not want to be party to agreements that could create tensions and drag them into conflicts with their neighbors. It's therefore time to refashion the U.S. presence in Iraq. Washington should adopt a policy of "constructive disengagement." This will require changing the focus of the American-Iraqi relationship, away from military and security issues and toward political and economic ones. Troop levels should be rapidly drawn down. The United States should then concentrate on supporting Iraqis as they build a fair and representative political order, and should help us create the institutions and policies needed to underpin it.

Allawi served as Iraq's minister of Finance from 2005 to 2006 and is the author of "The Occupation of Iraq: Winning the War, Losing the Peace."

3. Afghanistan: A Thirst for Justice
By Ashraf Ghani

In The Afghan worldview, justice is the foundation of order. Our languages are suffused with the notion that while prayer can save a single soul, justice can save the world. Our people saw the attacks of 9/11 as acts of injustice, and in the days that followed, we welcomed the deployment of international forces to Afghanistan, as well as the rebuilding of our state under the Bonn process. At first, thousands of Afghans who had devoted their lives to fighting the Soviet Red Army supported the arrival of foreign troops in 2001, and the United States enjoyed exceptional popularity. Children played with the visiting soldiers in the streets of Kabul, our capital city.

But Washington—and Senator Obama when he visits—should recognize that the international presence in Afghanistan has now reached a tipping point. The Afghans are frustrated by the waste and lack of transparency in the international aid system and the failure to invest in institutions of higher learning. Government corruption and mismanagement are increasing. Afghans are becoming increasingly skeptical about the Coalition's commitment to our rebuilding. Growing violence, especially civilian casualties (many inflicted by the international forces) are making us feel less secure. So are rising food prices and a youth-unemployment rate of 40 to 60 percent.

Obama should understand that the current state of affairs was not inevitable and is reversible. An Afghan-led strategy for state-building yielded both stability and legitimacy between 2002 and 2005. A series of comprehensive national programs, ranging from rural development to a national army to modern telecommunications, were put in place. Both NATO and U.S. forces have recently articulated a counterinsurgency doctrine that puts statecraft at the heart of winning the consent of the people. This shift in strategic thinking supports the Afghan world view that justice and rule of law are the keys to a legitimate order.

What we need now from Obama or whoever becomes the next U.S. president is something similar to the Marshall Plan that helped rebuild Europe 60 years ago. A medium- to long-term regional initiative that removes terrorist sanctuaries and leads to full economic cooperation between South and Central Asia would help Afghanistan regain its crucial position as a central node of communication in the region. Credible supervision mechanisms are needed to make the forthcoming presidential election free and fair. The narcotics and terrorism problems require the integration of development and security strategies. We need a systematic overhaul of our police and our judiciary, and efforts to rebuild state capability at all levels of government.

The Afghan people are ready to believe again. We are waiting for statesmanship, forged in the best American tradition, to overcome past neglect and help us create an Afghan state that is stable and legitimate at home and respected abroad.

Ghani,the former Finance minister of Afghanistan, is chairman of the Institute of State Effectiveness.
 

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Member Comments

Posted By: chuckhasker@yahoo.com (July 21, 2008 at 2:30 PM)

There is too much food for thought on these 3 articles Andrew and you should have broken them up into three seperate events, for I am going to need a few glasses of wine after sorting all this  stuff out.  However, (1) Josef Joffe article has food for thought. (2) Ali A. Allawi wrote from a grumbling and a frustrated I want it fixed now point of view. In one breath he writes, "If the new order fails to improve conditions soon, Iraqis may well turn once again to proverbial "men on horseback." then he writes "Troop levels should be rapidly drawn down." Have to have the toops if you don't want the horseback ridders coming for you with hoods in the night. Can't have it both ways.  Allawi should be thankful that Democrary is working in his country, though it is  limping along it is working, sometimes new ideas and ways of doing things takes time to get used too. He should also be thankful that he can say what he might today, because he is free. Under the old regime he would have been flogged or worse.  And one final thing, Mr. Allawi I want to remind you that Obama is just a Senator not the President. At least not yet. You talked as if he was in your tone. (3) Ashraf Ghani, wow, was I impressed. I liked the idea of the Marshall plan it worked once before and it can work again, and the Afgan people do need to believe again. Obama if you become president you need to sit down with this guy and talk about Afganistan. In fact why don't you have a Senate hearing and call him as a witness  while you are in charge. Now that's Change! Are you not the Chairman of the Comittee on Afganistan? Talk about shoring up your foreign policy credentials, it would be much better for you to have hearings on the matter than a photo opportunity. It would show that you are taking action now. Chuck Hasker