Stumper reader T.O.--a smart Democrat who's worked in state and national politics--kicks in a compelling outline of the reasons why Obama supporters shouldn't be stressing over Sarah Barracuda, who appears to have the entire nation (or at least, the entire punditocracy) in deep swoon mode after her performance last night here in St. Paul. I think T.O.'s note is a pretty perceptive summary of what Dems are saying to reassure themselves right now--even if it's too early to tell if any of it is, you know, true. Here's his diagnosis:
(1) McCain is running for President, not Palin. After today, it's all McCain/Obama, all the time.
(2) McCain is going to die in office. Voting for Palin for VP is voting for her for President. Probably not too many independents, who are the people she needs to win over, are going to be ready to do this. Obviously, we don't argue this directly.
(3) Loyalty oaths from Wasilla workers? Banned books in the library? Troopergate? Earmark queen? She's not a reformer. And none of this has anything to do with her wacky family, which will be off limits, but which, again, most independents still think is wacky.
(4) Independents don't like it when all you offer is attacks. Community organizing/community service is now laughable and/or objectionable? Tell that to a union worker, a woman or a black person.
(5) Back to (1). The first and last time this won't be McCain/Obama all the time before the election is Palin's debate with Biden. Here's a simple strategy for Biden: be cordial, complimentary and incredibly detailed and commanding in any policy--especially foreign policy--discussion. She'll sit there trying to remember her three bullet points on Georgia or health care reform, and the contrast will be self-evident.
What do you think? My hunch is that people don't really vote against VPs--even if the ticket-topper is unusually old. And for the record, I don't believe that many people are actively predicting McCain's imminent demise, let alone casting their ballots on that basis. Moreover, I think that the campaign will be actually be McCain-Palin vs. Obama-Obama from now until Election Day--if only because Palin's newness makes her news and the media will cover her like Paris Hilton. As the Atlantic's Marc Ambinder wrote earlier today, "Every word she says will be subject to parsing and semiotic analysis.
The late night comics will be ferocious... There will be front-page stories on
her accent. She'll be the top story everywhere she travels; every new
market she sets foot in will be hers to own for the day. She'll draw
enormous crowds...much larger crowds that John McCain. The demand for
new facts and information about her will be insatiable." I suspect that Marc is exactly right--and that this exactly what the McCain camp, which is desperate to rebrand itself as "reform," wants to happen.
Additions? Subtractions? Amendments? Corrections? Anyone? Bueller?
The comments are all yours.
