Originally posted Oct. 8, 12:31 a.m.

(Jim Bourg / AP)

Barack Obama and John McCain spent most of Tuesday's debate roaming aimlessly across an expanse of red carpet at Nashville's Belmont University. For McCain to "win," Obama would've had to slip on a banana peel during one of his ambles--whether rhetorical or actual. He didn't come close.

In fact, it was McCain--the only candidate on stage who was trailing by 6 points and roughly 100 electoral votes at the start of the show--who may have slipped further behind by evening's end.

On substance, both Obama and McCain had their moments. Obama dominated the health-care discussion, movingly evoking his mother's death from cancer at age 53 to explain why coverage should be a fundamental right for every American. When McCain characterized Obama's approach as "government will do this and government will do that," Obama calmly reiterated that the only mandates in his plan were for children--who, after all, are "relatively cheap to insure and [shouldn't be going] to the emergency room for treatable illnesses like asthma." Continuing, he explained that for everyone else, "if you’ve got a health-care plan that you like, you can keep it." Meanwhile, McCain presented his own plan in paragraphs too convoluted for even his policy advisers to unpack. "You can go across state lines, maybe into Arizona," he said. "They may offer a better plan that suits you best than it does here in Tennessee. If you do the math, those people who have employer-based health benefits, if you put the tax on it and you have what's left over and you add $5,000 that you're going to get as a refundable tax credit--do the math." Come again?

Obama was equally effective countering McCain's charge that he doesn't understand the Rooseveltian concept of "talking softly and carrying a big stick." "This is the guy who sang, 'Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran,' who called for the annihilation of North Korea," he said. "That I don't think is an example of 'speaking softly.' This is the person who, after we had--we hadn't even finished Afghanistan, where he said, 'Next up, Baghdad'." When McCain tried to interrupt, Obama simply extended his arm and continued talking. In general, Obama showed greater agility, nimbly responding to McCain's criticisms with concrete, intuitive rebuttals.

On the other hand, McCain clearly outshone Obama on the question of when humanitarian intervention is warranted abroad, explaining clearly and calmly that our desire to do "whatever we can to prevent genocide ... [must be] tempered with our ability to beneficially affect the situation." "I know those situations," he added. "I've been in them all my life." In contrast, Obama delivered a garbled response--"who among us would say that we had a moral obligation not to ... interven[e] effectively in the Holocaust?"--that included an equivocation about intervention being "something that we would have to strongly consider" if awarded a mulligan in Rwanda. (Sensing his fuzziness, Obama awkwardly appended the phrase "and act" to the sentence.) Not exactly spine-tingling stuff. McCain also seemed more comfortable than his rival discussing Russia's invasion of Georgia; Obama stumbled and failed to distinguish his approach from McCain's.

Overall, however, both candidates did what they came to do, at least on substance: Obama emphasized the middle class and hammered the "McCain is President Bush" theme in nearly every answer; McCain repeatedly attacked Obama's economic policies before reverting to homilies about the "greatness of America" (as if to imply a contrast with his Democratic rival, whose past associations with Bill Ayers and the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Jr., he studiously avoided).

The problem was that neither contender broke any new ground on the issues. It was, in effect, a remarkably flat (even boring) event--more a guided tour of each candidate's talking points than a free-flowing exchange of ideas. There was no news. Those inclined to agree with McCain today will still agree with him tomorrow and vice versa; swing voters won't be swayed by new revelations about taxes, or health care, or the environment, or Iraq (hint: there weren't any). As a result, the public--and, just as importantly, the press--will focus on the only memorable aspect of the encounter: style. And that doesn't bode well for McCain.

At the start of the show, the Arizona senator made an interesting remark: "Senator Obama, it’s good to be with you at a town-hall meeting." It's one he may come to regret. For starters, McCain's favored format didn't actually favor McCain. While the Republican nominee may prefer loose, informal town halls to stilted set-piece speeches, Tuesday's rules were too restrictive to allow for much spontaneity--and McCain, usually alone on stage during his own town halls, suffered from the direct physical comparison to Obama. Not only was the Illinois senator more fluid and graceful than his tightly wound Republican rival--who, attempting intimacy, often seemed to come too close to his questioners--but he also did a better job accomplishing the (admittedly theatrical) task of repeating people's names and seeming to respond directly to their questions.

It's not that McCain didn't have good moments: his first answer ("Americans are angry, they're upset and they're a little fearful") was notably empathetic, and his firm handshake with a naval retiree near the end of the night was genuinely moving. Obama, meanwhile, sounded at times as if he were lecturing the audience instead of "feeling its pain." But overall, the Democrat appeared less nervous, less tentative and more "in control," especially when linking his policies to voters' own experiences. (Focus groups appreciated, for example, that he knew the price of gas in Nashville.) Are these superficial concerns? Absolutely. (*It's worth noting that much of McCain's stiffness is the result of severe war injuries, as I've done on numerous occasions.*) But when Obama's whole closing argument is that he's a calmer, cooler, more reliable leader than McCain, visceral impressions are hardly inconsequential.

The other problem with McCain's opening remark--a jab at Obama for weaseling out of last summer's proposed town halls--was that it was merely the first of several petty asides. Refusing to refer to Obama as "Barack," McCain never passed up an opportunity to mock his opponent, whether for requesting an overheard projector for a Chicago planetarium or failing to specify the size of his proposed health-care fine. I'm assuming these pre-scripted interjections were designed to make McCain seem like an amused old pro schooling a wayward rookie. Taken together, however, they conveyed outright disdain. Far too often, McCain was only the one laughing at his own jokes--an image that risked reinforcing the impression that he's too "angry and erratic" to be president (which is the main reason he's losing in the first place).

Unfortunately for McCain, the night's only "buzzworthy" moment had much the same effect. Referring to the "Bush and Cheney" energy bill, the senator asked a rhetorical question--"you know who voted for it?"--that he was all too eager to answer. "That one," he said, flicking his arm in Obama's general direction. The moment--which seemed to sum up McCain's dismissive attitude toward his opponent--immediately appeared on YouTube; after the show, it dominated the cable chatfests. Given the MSM's obsession with soundbites, "That One" may be all we remember of Tuesday's tedious debate in two weeks' time-- fairly or unfairly. Which is yet another reason why no news was bad news for McCain.

Reasonable people may disagree over the relative importance of style and substance Tuesday in Nashville. That's fine. But few would argue that McCain emerged with anything better than a draw. For Obama--who would win an election held today in a landslide--merely holding his own was good enough. His Republican rival, meanwhile, needs to change the dynamic in order to catapult himself back into contention--a near impossible task. Tuesday's debate--an unfiltered encounter with 60-70 million potential voters--was one of McCain's last opportunities to do it. He didn't. According to CBS News's postdebate poll, Obama won the match 40 percent to 26 percent; likewise, CNN's flash survey gave the Democrat a 54-30 percent advantage. Ultimately, this means that McCain didn't just fail to "change the game" Tuesday. He actually came one step closer to losing. 

*Updated 10:34 a.m.