Barack Obama's sizable advantages in both
national and battleground surveys have held steady for at least a week. So it's only
natural that the chattering classes would start to get antsy. Eager for
the next plot twist--and running out of stuff to say on cable--a number
of pundits have taken to speculating about whether Obama will win this
or that red state. First it was North Carolina, which looks plausible
enough. Then it was Missouri--also a possibility. But now that talk has
turned to West Virginia, I feel as if it's my solemn journalistic duty
to deliver a bit of a reality check.
Simply put, McCain shouldn't sweat the Mountain State.
In
defense of Chris Matthews and Co., it's easy to see why it's such an
attractive subject for speculation. For decades, the thoroughly
working-class West Virginia--one of only two states to vote for Jimmy
Carter in 1980 AND Michael Dukakis in 1988--was among the bluest states
in the union. In fact, Republicans managed to win West Virginia only
twice between 1960 and 1996--during the massive GOP landslides of 1972
and 1984. But now the tables have turned. In 2000, the state chose
George W. Bush over Al Gore, 52 to 46 percent; four years later, Bush
doubled his winning margin to 13 points. The story--for what its
worth--was that West Virginia's white working class had chosen to vote
its values (Republicans) over its economic interests (Democrats).
Now,
after a May primary in which Hillary Clinton clobbered Obama 67 to 26--a
result that generated a flurry of stories about Obama's "Appalachian
problem," most with Charleston datelines--an Obama victory on Election
Day would provide the commentariat with "proof" of the grand theory
it's already advancing as to "why Obama won": because the economy trumped race.
As if on cue, the polling average in West Virginia has narrowed to 2.2
points since the start of the month. Meanwhile, reports have surfaced
that Obama is advertising in markets that bleed across the Ohio and
Virginia borders--and, as a result, Sarah Palin was said to be embarking on a defensive bus tour.
Sensing a potential shift, Beltway sage Charlie Cook moved the Mountain
State into his toss-up column over the weekend, and the cable newsniks
began repeating the words "Obama is even winning West Virginia!" as if
it were some sort of mantra.
Now for the reality check. Palin did land in Kenova, W.
Va. yesterday morning--but only for geographic convenience. She quickly
drove across the border into Ohio, and so far, there have been no
signs--no visits, no ads, no nothing--suggesting that either Obama or
McCain is paying particular attention to the state. That's undoubtedly
the right decision. While it's true that the average polling gap
between McCain and Obama is smaller this month than last, that's only
because of a single sounding: the Oct. 8
survey from American Research Group, which shows Obama leading by eight. One poll, however, does not a trend make. Previous Mountain State surveys
showed McCain ahead by four to eight points; it would be irresponsible to ignore them until another pollster
puts out some stats. ARG is famous--or infamous--for quirky results, and the prediction whizzes at FiveThirtyEight still give McCain a 67 percent chance of victory.
Could Obama win? Absolutely. But ultimately it doesn't matter whether the economy has boosted the Democrat in
West Virginia, or by how much. It simply won't be one of this year's
tipping point states. For West Virginia's five electoral votes to make
a difference, they'd have to be putting Obama over the top--adding, for
example, to a map that includes John Kerry's 2004 properties plus Iowa, New
Mexico and Nevada. But if Obama's winning white, working-class West
Virginia, it's pretty much impossible to imagine that he hasn't already
won less white, less working-class Ohio (20 electoral votes) and
Virginia (13)--both states where he's actually ahead the polls. In
fact, FiveThirtyEight predicts
that Obama will also win Colorado, Florida, Missouri and North Carolina
before he wins West Virginia. Meaning that if the Illinois senator does manage swing
the Mountain State, he'll already have a whopping 350 electoral votes in his
pocket--and, with them, the presidency.
Bottom line: McCain shouldn't worry about West Virginia. He simply has too many other states to stress about.
