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  • Progress

    Andrew Romano | Nov 7, 2008 08:42 AM
    Patrick Moberg sees the big picture. 
     
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  • The Best of NEWSWEEK's Top-Secret Election Project, Vols. II, III and IV

    Andrew Romano | Nov 6, 2008 10:13 AM

    Every four years, NEWSWEEK detaches a team of reporters to follow the presidential candidates from announcement speech to Election Day. The deal is simple. The "Project" staffers won't report what they learn until Nov. 5; in exchange, the campaigns give us unprecedented behind-the-scenes access.

    The first four chapters of the "The Project" are finally live on NEWSWEEK.com--and, as expected, they're packed with exclusive reporting and fascinating details.  You can read my favorite tidbits from Chapter One here.

    Now for the highlights from Chapters Two, Three and Four:

    Bill's Bile: In the days after his wife's back- from-the-brink victory in New Hampshire, Bill Clinton was full of righteous indignation. The former president had amassed an 81-page list of all the unfair and nasty things the Obama campaign had said, or was alleged to have said, about Hillary Clinton. The press was still in love with Obama, or so it seemed to Clinton, who complained to pretty much anyone who would listen. If the press wouldn't go after Obama, then Hillary's campaign would have to do the job, the ex-president urged. On Sunday, Jan. 13, Clinton got worked up in a phone conversation with Donna Brazile, a direct, strong-willed African-American woman who had been Al Gore's campaign manager and advised the Clintons from time to time. "If Barack Obama is nominated, it will be the worst denigration of public service," he told her, ranting on for much of an hour. Brazile kept asking him, "Why are you so angry?"

    Obama's Appetites--or Lack Thereof: Obama was abstemious. Indeed, to the reporters following him, he appeared very nearly anorexic. Most candidates gain the Campaign 10 (or 15). Hillary was struggling with her waistline, as she gamely knocked back shots and beers in working-class bars and gobbled the obligatory sausage sandwiches thrust at her in greasy spoons along the Trail of the White Working-Class Voter. Obama, by contrast, lost weight. He regularly ate the same dinner of salmon, rice and broccoli. At Schoop's Hamburgers, a diner in Portage, Ind., he munched a single french fry and ordered four hamburgers—to go. At the Copper Dome Restaurant, a pancake house in St. Paul, Minn., he ordered pancakes—to go. (An AP reporter wondered: who gets pancakes for the road?) A waiter reeled off a long list of richly topped flapjacks, but Obama went for the plain buttermilk, saying, "I'm kind of traditionalist." Reporters joked that if he ate a single bite of burger or pancake once the doors of his dark-tinted SUV closed, they'd eat their BlackBerrys.

    AFTER THE JUMP: McCain's Subversive Streak... 

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  • A 21st Century President?

    Andrew Romano | Nov 5, 2008 05:17 PM


    (Peter Dejong / AP)

    On Jan. 3, 2008, I arrived at the apartment of Paul Tewes, Barack Obama's Iowa state director, as the icy streets of downtown Des Moines filled with young Obamaniacs hugging and cheering, "We did it!" Upstairs, scruffy postcollegiate staffers squeezed between couches and credenzas to celebrate the senator's surprise victory in that night's Iowa caucuses. Cans of Bud Light covered every surface. Youth turnout, I was told, was up 135 percent from 2004, and the under-25 set alone gave Obama 17,000 votes--nearly his entire margin of victory. The next morning, a 25-year-old Obama supporter sent me an ecstatic email. "This," he wrote, "is our next president."

    At the time, there was no way of knowing what would happen eleven months later. But I had my suspicions. It was clear to me that night in Iowa that Obama had begun to build the first 21st century campaign--a campaign with the potential, I imagined, to propel him to a 21st century victory in November. On Tuesday, we learned that both of these premonitions had, in fact, come to pass. The question now is whether Obama will fulfill his promise and pursue a 21st century presidency.

    The litany of Obama's idiosyncrasies and innovations--as both campaigner and candidate--is nearly as long as it is familiar. For starters, he's black. (In case you missed it.) Less than 150 years ago, many Americans would've treated Obama as property. Now he's our president. That's progress--incredible, awe-inspiring progress. Similarly, Obama represents a new generation of American leadership--in both age and attitude. A mere 47, he urged voters from the start to reject the false dichotomies and "with-us-or-against-us" partisanship of baby-boomer politics--and defeated a Clinton and a Bush (at least symbolically) along the way.

    Obama's innovations were technological as well. As you've probably heard, the Internet contributed to his stunning success. But he didn't just log on and let rip, like Howard Dean in 2004. Instead, Obama demonstrated how disciplined online activity can facilitate favorable offline outcomes. The Web enabled him to raise more than $630 million, which enabled to him forgo public financing, which enabled him to invest in an ambitious electoral map, which he then redrew mostly through the efforts of volunteers recruited and organized (you guessed it) online. A cratering economy and unpopular incumbent may have put the wind in Obama's sails. But these strategies were the sails themselves. 

    Fittingly, the results last night reflected the modernity of Obama's campaign. The Illinois senator not only overcame John McCain in states that had bedeviled Democrats for years (Florida, Ohio) or decades (Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada). He did it by running up the score across a diverse spectrum of growing demographic groups--and, as a result, building a Democratic coalition that looks a lot like the future of America.

    Moderates, for example, now outnumber both liberals and conservatives; Obama won them by 21 points. He captured first-time voters by nearly 40 points. Today, more Americans are graduating from college than ever before; Obama transformed Bush's six-point advantage among alums into an six-point advantage of his own. In 2004, John Kerry won Latinos--the nation's fastest-growing ethnic group--by nine points. Obama won them by 36--enough to flip Florida, Colorado and New Mexico. The Democrat also inspired similar shifts among under-30 voters (from nine points to 34 points) and African-Americans (from 77 points to 91 points). Even the nation's fastest growing region--the West--went from a tie in 2004 to a 17-point Obama rout. "It's been a long time coming," the president-elect said last night in Chicago, quoting Sam Cooke. "But tonight, because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining moment, change has come to America." Exhibit A? His voters. Thirty years ago, increasing the margins and turnout among blacks, Latinos, young people, college grads and Westerners wouldn't have made much of difference. This year, it made Obama president.

    The question now is, "What's next?" Over the coming weeks, months and years, I'll be watching to see whether Obama pursues a truly 21st century presidency--that is, a presidency that prizes transparency, practices bipartisanship, privileges innovation over ideology, avoids the politics of demonization and calls on Americans to sacrifice for the greater good.

    Over the last 21 months, the campaign has sent out mixed messages on this front. Early on, Obama refused to accept lobbyist donations and proposed numerous measures to increase government transparency--including a searchable online database of lobbying reports, congressional ethics records and campaign-finance filings. But Obama's secretive, corporate campaign obsessively controlled the media's access to friends, family and documents, often for no discernible reason, and declined (unlike McCain) to release the names of donors who contributed less than $200 to his cause.

    In his speech last night, Obama revived a line first deployed at the 2004 Democratic Convention: "We have never been a collection of Red States and Blue States." But while he's crossed party lines on a few consensus issues in Senate--ethics reform, loose nukes, etc.--the president-elect has no real record of bipartisanship on thorny problems like immigration, campaign finance, global warming or earmarks (again, unlike McCain). On the stump, Obama floated above the fray, but he was perfectly content to unleash harsh ads under the MSM radar--including some thinly-veiled swipes at McCain's septuagenarian status. Despite making moderate noises on education and affirmative action, Obama has rarely voted against Democratic orthodoxy. At the debates, he was unwilling to ask Americans to give up anything greater than energy-inefficient light bulbs.

    Am I saying that Obama should've run a different campaign? Hardly. In a presidential race, winning is the one and only goal--and Obama won big and brilliantly. But the fact is, political pressures--the incentives to conceal, or attack, or stubbornly adhere to Democratic doctrine--don't suddenly dissolve the moment the campaigning stops and the governing begins. In many ways, they grow stronger--especially in the midst of a crippling financial crisis. Last night, Obama asked us to believe that as president he would resist the same urges he periodically succumbed to on the trail. "This victory alone is not the change we seek," he said. "It is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were." It'll be interesting to see how he plans to avoid backsliding. Maybe he'll mobilize online supporters to lobby for legislation, or appoint Republicans to his cabinet, or air health-care hearings live on C-SPAN. But to believe that politics ends on Nov. 5 is naive.

    My suspicion is that Obama recognizes his 21st-century responsibility and will strive to govern accordingly--just as he recognized how to reach the voters of Iowa and, eventually, 52 percent of the electorate. Right now, all we have to go on is hope. But every improbable journey has to start somewhere.

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  • Bush on Obama: 'A Triumph of the American Story'

    Andrew Romano | Nov 5, 2008 12:02 PM

    Speaking just now from the White House's Rose Garden, President George W. Bush invoked the memory--and words--of Martin Luther King, Jr.--in describing Barack Obama's historic achievement. "It will be a stirring sight to see President Obama, his wife, Michelle, and their beautiful girls step through the doors of the White House," he said. "I know millions of Americans will be overcome with pride at this inspiring moment that so many have waited so long."

    The current era of partisan comity will soon come to end, I'm sure. But that doesn't make it any less refreshing--or any less of an opportunity for Obama, should he choose to seize it. Here's hoping...

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  • The Results (So Far): 364 for Obama, 173 for McCain

    Andrew Romano | Nov 5, 2008 11:50 AM

    Obama, 364: Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Iowa, California, Oregon, Washington, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Hawaii, Washington, D.C., Indiana, North Carolina

    McCain, 173: Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia, Wyoming, North Dakota, West Virginia, Kansas, Utah, Louisiana, Nebraska, South Dakota, Idaho, Arizona, Alaska, Montana, Missouri

    Popular Vote: 52 percent Obama, 46 percent McCain 

    Senate: Democrats 56, Republicans 40

    House: Democrats 258, Republicans 177 


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  • The Best of NEWSWEEK's Top-Secret Election Project, Vol. I

    Andrew Romano | Nov 5, 2008 11:09 AM

    Every four years, NEWSWEEK detaches a team of reporters to follow the presidential candidates from announcement speech to Election Day. The deal is simple. The "Project" staffers won't report what they learn until Nov. 5; in exchange, the campaigns give us unprecedented behind-the-scenes access. The information is so hush-hush, in fact, that no one who works on the weekly magazine--including yours truly--is permitted to read the finished product until a winner is officially declared. Which meant I was up until 4:00 a.m., reading away.

    Today, the first chapter of "The Project" goes live on NEWSWEEK.com--and, as expected, it's packed with exclusive reporting and fascinating details. Since this is a blog--and not the Library of Congress--I won't post the whole (long) thing here. But I will highlight my favorite tidbits below. You ADD-types can thank me later. 

    (The NEWSWEEK Election Project was written by Evan Thomas with reporting from Peter Goldman, Eleanor Clift, Daren Briscoe, Nick Summers, Katie Connolly and Michael Hastings; Holly Bailey and Jonathan Darman also contributed intel.)

    I. Obama's 'Certain Ambivalence'

    Obama was something unusual in a politician: genuinely self-aware. In late May 2007, he had stumbled through a couple of early debates and was feeling uncertain about what he called his "uneven" performance. "Part of it is psychological," he told his aides. "I'm still wrapping my head around doing this in a way that I think the other candidates just aren't. There's a certain ambivalence in my character that I like about myself. It's part of what makes me a good writer, you know? It's not necessarily useful in a presidential campaign."

    These candid remarks were taped at a debate-prep session at a law firm in Washington. The tape of Obama's back-and-forth with his advisers, provided to NEWSWEEK by an attendee, is a remarkably frank and revealing record of what the candidate was really thinking when he took the stage with his opponents.

    On the tape, after Obama's rueful remark about the mixed blessings of his detached nature, there is cross talk and laughter, and then Axelrod cracks, "You can save that for your next memoir."

    Obama continues: "When you have to be cheerful all the time and try to perform and act like [the tape is unclear; Obama appears to be poking fun at his opponents], I'm sure that some of it has to do with nerves or anxiety and not having done this before, I'm sure. And in my own head, you know, there's—I don't consider this to be a good format for me, which makes me more cautious. When you're going into something thinking, 'This is not my best …' I often find myself trapped by the questions and thinking to myself, 'You know, this is a stupid question, but let me … answer it.' Instead of being appropriately [the tape is garbled]. So when Brian Williams is asking me about what's a personal thing that you've done [that's green], and I say, you know, 'Well, I planted a bunch of trees.' And he says, 'I'm talking about personal.' What I'm thinking in my head is, 'Well, the truth is, Brian, we can't solve global warming because I f–––ing changed light bulbs in my house. It's because of something collective'."

    AFTER THE JUMP: The Crying Game...
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  • Obama's Win: The View from Harlem

    Editors | Nov 5, 2008 01:49 AM

    By Jessica Bennett

    Outside the Apollo Theater on Harlem's 125th Street, chants of "Obama U-S-A" echo through subway tunnels and roadways as the final words of the next president's speech--that familiar "Yes We Can"--broadcast through open windows and car radios. To describe the scene here almost sounds like a Lifetime special, except it is real: streets have been blocked off, while black, white, Latino, young, old celebrate peacefully, in multiple languages and urban dialects. "I honestly never thought I'd see this day," says Roland Jackson, a lifelong Harlem native who moved to Indiana six months ago, but came back today to vote. "It's the fulfillment of Martin Luther King's dream," says Richard Washington, 45. "Now we have a new legacy."

    Beside me, two friends embrace--"change, man, change," one says, patting the back of his friend. "I'm going to cry," says Elana King, a 36-year-old Harlem native. "Not only is this historic because its a black man, but it's the first time we feel like we truly affected change."  

    Amid the clanging of pots and pans, the constant blare of car horns and scattered showers from a broken fire hydrant shooting water into the air off Broadway, camera phones are almost as abundant as the Obama paraphernalia: home-made posters, self-designed T-shirts, stickers, flyers and  fountains of confetti. "Its like Mardi  Gras," says a woman.

    Just a lot more historic.

     

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  • 'If There Is Anyone Out There Who Still Doubts That America Is a Place Where All Things Are Possible... Tonight Is Your Answer.'

    Andrew Romano | Nov 5, 2008 12:03 AM

    America has spoken. Now, before 240,000 supporters in Chicago's Grant Park, our new president takes his turn. Here's Barack Obama's 2008 presidential acceptance speech, as prepared for delivery:

    (Morry Gash / AP)

    If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.

    It's the answer told by lines that stretched around schools and churches in numbers this nation has never seen; by people who waited three hours and four hours, many for the very first time in their lives, because they believed that this time must be different; that their voice could be that difference.  

    It's the answer spoken by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat and Republican, black, white, Latino, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, disabled and not disabled - Americans who sent a message to the world that we have never been a collection of Red States and Blue States: we are, and always will be, the United States of America.

    It's the answer that led those who have been told for so long by so many to be cynical, and fearful, and doubtful of what we can achieve to put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day.

    It's been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining moment, change has come to America. 

    CONTINUED AFTER THE JUMP...
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  • The McCain-Obama Call

    Andrew Romano | Nov 4, 2008 11:27 PM

    McCain called Obama at 11 p.m. Eastern. What they said, courtesy of Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs:

    Senator Obama thanked Senator McCain for his graciousness and said he had waged a tough race. Senator Obama told Senator McCain he was consistently someone who has showed class and honor during this campaign as he has during his entire life in public service.

    Senator Obama said he was eager to sit down and talk about how the two of them can work together--Obama said to move this country forward "I need your help, you're a leader on so many important issues."

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  • Ladies and Gentlemen, President-Elect Barack Hussein Obama

    Andrew Romano | Nov 4, 2008 11:02 PM

    It's a wrap.

    Whatever your political affiliation, whomever you supported... I think we can all come together at this moment, as Americans, and agree that the election of the son of a black Kenyan father and a white Kansan mother--an African-American--represents a turning point in the long, imperfect narrative of our nation. Tomorrow we can return to bickering; if we didn't, we wouldn't be Americans. But tonight, let's pause and celebrate--and savor the rare feeling of living through history, together.

    Everything just changed. Here's hoping that President Obama is equal to the moment.


  • Obama Just Won Ohio. Why That Means It's Over.

    Andrew Romano | Nov 4, 2008 09:25 PM

    The networks won't call it for awhile. The winner won't reach 270 for another hour or two. But it just became pretty much impossible for John McCain to win the 2008 election.

    Why? One word. Ohio.

    In case you missed it, the networks just called it for (drum roll, please) Barack Obama.

    The math is simple. With no (plausible) blue states left for McCain to pick up, his best-case scenario was matching George W. Bush's 2004 total of 286 electoral votes. Subtract the Buckeye State's 20 EVs--and New Mexico's five (it was also called around 9:30)--and he's at 261. There simply aren't enough winnable electoral votes on the table to lift McCain to 270. And we haven't even received the final results from Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Florida, Indiana and North Carolina--all plausible (some probable) Obama pickups.

    So how did Obama do it?  By winning voters who are worried about economic conditions--a full 86 percent of the electorate--by 12 points. By outperforming Kerry's 68 percent margin among black voters by a shocking 27 points. By beating McCain among every age group under 65--after Kerry lost every age group over 30. By clobbering McCain 60-37 among voters making under $50,000 and tying him among those making over $50K; Kerry, for the record, won the first group 58-42 and lost the latter group by a massive 58-42 margin. Obama even won whites making under $50K. It was, simply put, a commanding performance--the product of campaigning in 18 different counties versus Kerry's nine, opening twice the number of field offices and dispatching three times the number of staffers. Money matters, and some combustible combination of Obama's wealth and Ohioans' worries made all the difference.

    A McCain aide just told Marc Ambinder, "at this point, we need a miracle." At this point, I'm not even sure that would do it.

    Fact is, miracles don't trump math. And John McCain - Ohio = President Obama. All that's left to figure out is the size of his victory.

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  • No Blue States for McCain

    Andrew Romano | Nov 4, 2008 09:06 PM

    It's official.

    As polls close at 9:00 p.m., the networks call Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin for Barack Obama. This means that John McCain, who has already lost in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania will not--repeat will not--add to George W. Bush's 2004 electoral vote total of 286.

    To win, the Republican has to hope that Obama either a) doesn't win any Bush states or b) wins Bush states worth less 16 electoral votes. A few examples: Nevada plus Iowa; New Mexico plus Colorado; Virginia or Indiana--and nowhere else. If Obama wins Ohio or Florida, it's over.

    The Sunshine State, of course, is still too close to call. Obama currently leads 51-48 with 50 percent reporting; he's outperforming Kerry in key Bush districts 9and the key Kerry districts on the southeastern coast have yet to report). What's more, there's an early sign in the Florida exit polls that McCain may be in trouble--if not down south, then out west.After Bush won 56 percent of Florida's Hispanic vote in 2004, Obama carried the group tonight, 55-44. This bodes extremely well for the Illinois senator's chances in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

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  • The Keystone State... Called for Obama

    Andrew Romano | Nov 4, 2008 08:00 PM

    John McCain's plan to win tonight? Swipe Pennsylvania.

    Alas, it was not to be. At 8:00 on the dot--the moment the polls closed--the networks called the Keystone State for Obama.

    Without it, McCain now needs to win Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Indiana. If he loses any one of those states, his path to 270 becomes prohibitively steep. If he wins them, he still needs to hold onto the Western states of Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa and Nevada, where Obama has been polling much better than in the east.

    Stay tuned...


  • Live Chat! With Joe Trippi!

    Andrew Romano | Nov 4, 2008 06:53 PM

    Hey everyone,

    For the next hour, veteran Democratic consultant Joe Trippi and I will be answering your questions... live and uncensored. Click here to participate.

    Thanks for reading!

    UPDATE: Transcript after the jump...

     

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  • The First Hint of an Obama Victory?

    Andrew Romano | Nov 4, 2008 06:35 PM

    The first results of the 2008 election are trickling in... from Vigo County, Indiana.

    That might sound kind of random. But the interesting thing is, Vigo County--home of Terra Haute--has for decades most closely matched the national vote for president of any county in the country. As the Indianapolis Star reported earlier this week, "only six counties in the nation have voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1960--[and] of those six, Vigo County, which is about 70 miles southwest of Indianapolis, has voted closest to the national margin." In 2004, for example, Vigo voted for George W. Bush over John Kerry 53 percent to 46 percent--only a point or two off the final margin. 

    So what are the early 2008 returns showing?

    With 69 percent of precincts reporting, Barack Obama is beating John McCain in Vigo County--57 to 42. That 15-point margin will likely close as more ballots are counted, and the senator still needs to drive up big margins around Gary and Indianapolis to win the Hoosier State. But if Obama retains even a fraction of his current lead, history says this will be a very good night for the Democratic nominee.

    I'll update as more results come in...

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