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  • What If Huckabee Were the Nominee?

    Andrew Romano | Oct 9, 2008 12:17 PM

    Huckabee campaigning in Orange County, Calif. last January. (Photo by Stumper)

    This was never going to be a good year for the GOP. But would it have been better for Mike Huckabee than John McCain?

    From the start, it was clear that the Republican presidential nominee--no matter who he was--would be "running to succeed the most unpopular president in modern history, in what is quite possibly the most politically hostile environment a Republican has faced since the Great Depression." Which is why most objective observers applauded when the party picked McCain last spring. An unorthodox Republican who'd broken with the GOP on immigration, campaign-finance reform, earmarks and global warming, McCain was seen--thanks to his bipartisan credentials and durable, "different kind of conservative" brand--as the only candidate with a chance of distancing himself from President George W. Bush and surviving the inevitable Democratic tsunami. "If the Republicans nominate anyone other than John McCain, they are doomed to defeat," wrote conservative columnist Richard Baehr in January. "McCain on the other hand, has a real shot at winning."

    But now that experts are pondering a potential Barack Obama landslide, the case for McCain isn't quite so clear. Some might argue that, at the end of the day, a Democrat would've won no matter what; that may be true. But it's also true that McCain is particularly ill-suited to confront the two defining political challenges that have cropped up since he clinched the Republican nomination in March.

    On one hand, the emergence of the smooth, youthful Obama as the Democratic standard-bearer has thrown the less appealing aspects of McCain's otherwise admirable character--his age, his recklessness, his stilted speaking style--into sharp relief. On the other, the emergence of the current economic meltdown as The Only Issue That Matters has made it pretty much impossible for McCain--a longtime proponent of deregulation who's otherwise shown little interest in (or expertise on) the economy over his 26 year Congressional career--to credibly connect with struggling middle-class voters. Taken together, these two developments explain why Obama is leading by six points in the national polls and more than 100 votes on the electoral map. Sure, John McCain is losing because he's a Republican. But he's also losing because he's John McCain.

    Which got me wondering: would any other Republican be doing better at this point? And that's when I remembered the name "Mike Huckabee."

    I know what you're thinking. Huckabee? The goofy Arkansas governor/former Baptist minister/weight-loss spokesmodel who spent an unsettling amount of time with Chuck Norris?  That's right--the same. Now, this isn't to say the GOP should have nominated Huckabee last spring. I'll leave the retrospective arm-chair quarterbacking to professional Republicans. But it is interesting to consider how the current political situation--which seems as if it were designed to highlight McCain's weaknesses--would've played perfectly to Huckabee's particular (and peculiar) strengths.

    The first--and most important--factor is the economy. Back in primary season, the conventional rap against Huckabee was that by nominating a total foreign-policy neophyte the Republicans would forfeit their most potent electoral advantage (especially if Democrats were "foolish" enough to pick someone as inexperienced as Obama). But with homeowners struggling and the world's financial markets teetering on the brink of collapse, foreign-policy expertise is hardly the trump card the GOP once hoped it'd be. (Just ask John McCain.) What the party could use right now is a candidate who can connect with the much-burdened middle class. I suspect that Huckabee would be doing a better job than McCain-and perhaps even Obama.

    During the primaries, the press attributed Huckabee's ascent to his appealing sense of humor. But I always thought that his substantive message--a unique brand of Republican economic populism--was the main factor fueling his candidacy. While his rivals obsessed over cutting corporate tax rates, Huckabee focused on kitchen-table economic concerns. "I am not interested in being the candidate of Wall Street but of Main Street," he told the Politico last August. "Wealthy CEOs get paid 500 times what the average worker does, but they are not necessarily 500 times smarter or harder working and that is wrong." Now everyone's doing the whole "Main Street vs. Wall Street" routine.

    In Arkansas, Huckabee passed a minimum wage hike and a statewide smoking ban; on the stump, he advocated "giv[ing] every American the same kind of health care that Congress has" and sympathized with people "who have worked for 20 and 30 years for companies... [then] get the pink slip and [are] told 'I'm sorry, but everything you spent your life working for is no longer here.' At the time, Huckabee's economic populism provoked the ire of fiscal conservatives. But in the wake of last month's Wall Street meltdown, I suspect that swing voters would've found his empathy and indignation far more appealing than McCain's unconvincing zigzags. And by emphasizing his hardscrabble, blue-collar roots and 13 years of executive experience--neither of which Obama possesses--I'm willing to bet that he would've blunted some of the Illinois senator's post-meltdown bounce. When Obama talks about suffering and governing, it's theoretical. Huckabee has lived it--and that comes across.

    Economic populism isn't Huckabee's only selling point. It took until August (and the arrival of Sarah Palin) for McCain to win over Republican base and get his party's ground game-which relies on excited volunteers-up and running. A social conservative and former Baptist minister, Huckabee would've riled up the die-hards starting last spring--and he would've made Palin's presence on the ticket, which has arguably hurt McCain more than it's helped him, completely unnecessary. McCain's age and decades in Congress have only made it easier for Obama to present himself as a fresh, outside-the-Beltway change agent. But Huckabee would've largely neutralized Obama's advantage here: he's only six years older than the Illinois senator and hasn't served a day in Washington. As Obama likes to point out, McCain has voted with President Bush "90 percent of the time." But absent a D.C. paper trail, Democrats would've had a harder time tying Huckabee to the toxic White House. Finally, Huckabee is a far better debater than McCain; he's funny, pithy and direct where McCain is awkward and meandering--and he probably would've given Obama a run for his money at Ole Miss and Belmont. 

    Does this mean Huckabee would've been a perfect--or even plausible--nominee? Hardly. His controversial flat-tax Fair Tax idea has the potential to produce massive tax increases for most Americans and massive tax cuts for the wealthy, according to independent studies. His governorship in Arkansas was shadowed by scandal. His staunch social conservatism--and religious fundamentalism--would've alienated a potentially fatal bloc of swing voters. His gaffes would've made Joe Biden blush. When it comes to fundraising, he's even feebler than McCain. And then there's Chuck Norris. For all I know, Huckabee would've been trailing Obama by 12 percent in the polls at this point.

    Still, it's hard to deny how well-suited he'd be, at least in theory, to handling the political challenges currently plaguing McCain. The way things are going now, Obama will be seeking a second term in 2012. Will conditions be as favorable for Huckabee then as they are now? Who knows. But I suspect he'll be fixing to find out.

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  • The Search for the Funniest Person in Washington

    Newsweek | Sep 11, 2008 04:36 PM

    By Daniel Stone 

    Politics, they say, is about getting things done, or reaching compromises or making sausages, or some political cliché like that. All true, yes. But what it really comes down to? Flipping on the charm and knowing how to work a room.

    Some folks are good at it. A lot aren't. Both types showed up for the Funniest Celebrity in Washington contest Wednesday night--the annual evening of laughs that pulls DC types from the high levels of government and media to poke clever, sometimes uncomfortable, fun at themselves and their colleagues. (Don't worry, it was a fundraiser. It was for the children.)

    If anyone ever said that politics can't be funny, Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr strongly disagrees. In a remarkable act, Barr sought to promote his candidacy, ding Bush AND get laughs. "You wanna hear a joke?" he yelled at the crowd. "Only Barack Obama and John McCain are in a debate. Get it? That's the joke!" [Uncomfortable laughter.] Certainly wanting to make sure his next joke could pass muster of an eastern elite DC audience, Barr picked things up. "Someone asked me recently how long I've been in Washington. I told them that when I first got to Washington, the Constitution and Habeas Corpus were still in effect." He should have stopped there, really, but he couldn't resist going out with a Libertarian light bulb joke. "How many Libertarians does it take to screw in a light bulb? You give up? None! We let the free market take care of it."

    Not long after came Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas, former lieutenant governor of Arkansas and former presidential candidate ("This guy has some trouble keeping a job!" cracked the MC), who managed to poke some fun at himself, chronicling the slow deflation of his presidential hopes and all the people he now meets who said they voted for him, although most, he griped, didn't. "If everyone who said they voted for me actually voted for me, I'd be hanging around with Sarah Palin right about now!" [Cue pity laugh.]

    Then he sharpened his deprecation...not of himself, but of his fellow GOPers.

    On Mitt Romney: "During the campaign, Mitt had more positions than a Chinese gymnast!"

    On Fred Thompson: "I heard that Fred Thompson ran with us. Did he? I don't know if he did for sure; I never saw him run."

    And on Sarah Palin: "She's shown she can sure shoot a moose. Now if she can go into the woods and shoot a moose with a lawyer, that makes her MORE qualified than Dick Cheney."

    Huckabee ended up winning the night, perhaps helped in part by his name recognition. But the real prize should have gone to second placer, hilarious Politico blogger James Kotecki, who performed a perfectly rhymed a timed DC-themed flow that managed to knock Barr, Huckabee and tax-lowering advocate Grover Norquist, who came in fourth. Some of Kotecki's lyrics are probably too hot for a family blog; here are some of the cleaner excerpts:

    Every other contestant here is a joke
    Bob Barr, yeah good luck with the pothead vote
    And Grover Norquist? Man I'm not trying to be mean
    I thought your tax policy WAS your standup routine!?

    Huck you won 8 months ago
    And now you're here telling jokes at a comedy show
    It's survival of the fittest I don't mean to be rude
    But NOW do you believe in evolution dude?

    Kotecki told Stumper that he doesn't think the Huckster seemed to mind the routine. In a morning after interview, Kotecki said that the Huck either didn't hear the lines or, if he did, could probably take a joke.

    What's more odd, though, is that Huckabee--who has never lived in DC-- was crowned Washington's funniest celebrity. That says a lot about Mike Huckabee. Not sure what that says about Washington.

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  • 'Pick Me,' Says Huck. 'Pretty Please?'

    Andrew Romano | May 19, 2008 02:53 PM

     

    In case you've been wondering why former Arkansas governor and 2008 Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee has spent the two-and-a-half months since dropping out of the race a) delivering color commentary for MSNBC on primary nights, b) raising money for fellow GOPers through a new political action committee c) writing a book due out in (hint, hint) November and d) campaigning with John McCain every chance he gets... well, mystery solved. Yesterday on Meet the Press, the Huckster explained it all:

    "There's no one I would rather be on a ticket with than John McCain. All during the campaign when I was his rival, not a running mate, there was no one who was more complimentary of him publicly and privately. ... I still wanted to win, but if I couldn't, John McCain was always the guy I would have supported and have now supported."

    After which Huckabee made his hand into a phone, wiggled it next to his face and mouthed the words "call me." Why the sudden burst of "pick me" desperation from Huck? After all, in an interview Thursday with my NEWSWEEK colleague Matthew Philips, the silver-tongued Arkansan was far more reserved regarding the veepstakes. "That's just pure speculation that I don't want to be a part of," he said. "No one has contacted me or indicated any of that to me. I'm just focused on getting [McCain] elected." Of course, Huck chatted with Philips before his "joking" at the National Rifle Association convention in Louisville, Ky. Friday that "somebody aimed a gun at [Barack Obama] and he dove for the floor"--and thus before he started to worry that his fondness for bleak assassination humor could cost him a slot on the shortlist. 

    But in all fairness, while Democrats like John Edwards ("No. Won't happen") and Jim Webb ("I would highly discourage [it]") may regularly (and perhaps less-than-truthfully) insist that they have no interest in running with Obama, Huckabee isn't the only Republican who's been remarkably open about his vice-presidential ambitions. “I think any Republican leader in this country would be honored to be asked to serve as the vice presidential nominee, myself included," said former Massachusetts Governor--and fellow McCain rival--Mitt Romney on March 11.  "If the nominee of our party asked you to serve with him, anybody would be honored to receive that call … and to accept it, of course."

    It seems everybody's a straight talker these days.
     

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  • Huckabee's Cagey Concession

    Andrew Romano | Mar 4, 2008 09:58 PM

    By Matthew Philips 

    Will he or won't he? Is he going to concede tonight in Texas or tomorrow in Little Rock, or ever? That was the question at the Mike Huckabee watch party in Irving, Texas, in the hour leading up to his speech as reporters scrummed around trying to catch the arm of an aide who could answer. For the whole day the answer was no, not tonight at least, maybe not even tomorrow. Even this afternoon, Ed Rollins was insisting to me on the phone that a concession was not in the offing tonight. But then an aide was quoted anonymously by NBC that "the handwriting was on the wall" and that a concession was imminent.

    Ten minutes later Huckabee was on the stage, looking misty eyed with his wife Janet, and talking about ... former Kansas City Royals baseball star George Brett, and how though his last out was an easy chopper to third, he ran as hard as he could all the way down to first base. Aha! So he was conceding. "It's been a great journey," Huckabee said. "I extended my congratulations to John McCain," he told us, acknowledging that it looked apparent that McCain would get to 1,191 delegates tonight. But even tonight, Huckabee didn't utter an explicit "It's time to get out of the race" line. Still, it seems his 2008 political journey is over.


  • The Huckabee Hoax

    Editors | Mar 4, 2008 02:50 PM

    By Matthew Philips

    Apparently, someone out there wants Mike Huckabee to drop out of the race, or at least wants us all to think he's about to. Just before 1 p.m. today an e-mail went out to 19 members of the Huckabee campaign, seemingly sent by campaign chair Ed Rollins, with the subject "Campaign Announcement." The e-mail explained that Rollins had just had a long conversation with Huckabee, and it included a message from the candidate himself saying that he'd be offering his formal concession this evening--quite the shock to members of the traveling press, who are scheduled to fly with Huckabee to Little Rock tonight and have been told again and again and again by candidate and advisers alike that he will not be conceding tonight, if ever. "It's completely fictional," Rollins said on the phone an hour after the message went out.

    The e-mail was sent from an address similar to one that Rollins uses, and as it made its way around news desks this afternoon, a few telltale signs marked it as a fake. For one, the alleged message from Huckabee incorrectly refers to his weight-loss memoir, "Stop Digging Your Grave With a Knife and Fork," as a novel. It has Huckabee calling himself "the William F. Buckley of the 21st Century," a comparison he's never made, with a man he's certainly never invoked on the campaign trail. The message continues by saying that Huckabee plans to "follow the Reagan model of 1976 and run again in four years," which may very well be Huckabee's plan but certainly not something he would say so plainly. The most obvious blunder, though, is that the author says that after losing to Ford in 1976, Reagan "returned to his role as Governor of California," which he did not. The e-mail ends with a weakly veiled attempt to bash Huckabee while seeming to praise him. "The truth is that the Huckabee political future doesn't die, it simply fades, fades away. God Bless you all," it says, before concluding with a jaunty "-Mike"

    Rollins said that the campaign has no idea where the e-mail came from, but that their "computer people are chasing it down." A veteran of numerous political campaigns over the years, Rollins didn't seem too upset about the hoax. "It bothers me it did happen," he said, before noting, "It's all part of the game."

    As to where it measures in terms of previous dirty tricks, Rollins singled out James Carville, who in 1973 somehow snatched a campaign strategy memo from a locked drawer in Rollins's desk and then leaked it to the press. Anyone seen the Ragin' Cajun today? 

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  • Hijinks Aboard Air Huckabee

    Andrew Romano | Mar 3, 2008 04:13 PM

    Here's NEWSWEEK's Matthew Philips with a report from the fun-loving Huckabee campaign plane. I will note, for the record, that Huck's people didn't invent aisle surfing. I personally witnessed Josh Romney riding down the aisle of a charter jet in Florida (he crashed into my armrest). But good to know the GOP's grommets are still dropping in.

    Mike Huckabee may not be winning--but at least his staff is having a good time. In fact, the bus or plane feels more like a college road trip than a presidential campaign. Early in the primary season, Huck's troops--most of them Southern twentysomethings only a year or two out of college--developed a game called aisle surfing, where upon takeoff one person crouches on a cafeteria tray at the front of the cabin and rides down the center aisle as the plane angles into the sky. A successful ride often ends with a broken tray--and the surfer on his or her back.

    Harrowing plane rides have become regular occurrences as the campaign has crisscrossed much of the country in small jets, often flying in and out of snow storms and heavy winds. Those sanguine enough to sleep usually find themselves the victim of "nap notes"--messages scrawled on a slips of paper and placed on their laps while snickering colleagues snap pictures. A baby-faced staffers take a snooze? Cue up "I promise I'm 21." A member of the press corps passes out? Expect an "I'm not pregnant" stuck to his or her chest. Even Chuck Norris has been tagged. On a recent trip in Texas, Norris's wife Gena discreetly placed a note on the slumbering star's lap and clicked her camera. Its message: "MH can beat me up." (Three guesses what those initials stand for.)

    And as for about Huckabee himself? It took until today, but the former Arkansas governor finally got gotten. While catching some z's between Houston and Abilene, a nap note somehow found its way to the boss's belly. The caption, photographed by his daughter Sarah, was perhaps the most fitting yet:

    "When I close my eyes, it feels like I'm on Air Force One."
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  • Sure, the Bass-Playing Huckabee Is 'Hip'--Compared to His Supporters

    Andrew Romano | Feb 19, 2008 11:34 AM

    After dissing the earnest, pro-Obama hipsters of "Yes We Can," praising their anti-McCain parodists ("John.i.am") and comparing the maniacal "Hillary4U&Me" to a jingle for hepatitis B, it's only fair that Stumper takes note of the latest supporter-generated musical extravaganza: Mike Huckabee's "High Hopes" (above).

    How does it compare? I'm torn. On the one hand, I appreciate the historical allusion; originally popularized in 1959 by Frank Sinatra, "High Hopes" was rerecorded by the Rat Pack in 1960 to serve as a campaign theme for John F. Kennedy. (Lyrics included the immortal phrase, "Oops, there goes the opposition -- KERPLOP!") But whatever trivia points the Huckafans may have scored by plundering the past, they've more than lost with their actual rendition of the song. Without spoiling the surprise, let me say that "overeager Disney World cast member performs at Asian karaoke joint circa 1997" wouldn't be too far off the mark.

    Also, a note to the lyricist: "Firmative" is not the best word to describe Huckabee's "stance." Mostly because it doesn't exist.

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  • Bowling for Delegates

    Editors | Feb 18, 2008 01:31 PM

    By Matthew Philips

    It was the epitome of middle-class middle America: a bowling alley in Milwaukee, Wis., on a Sunday afternoon. Nachos and pizza and pitchers of Miller Light for $8, NASCAR on TV, kids plunking tokens into arcade games, Mike and Janet Huckabee bowling 10 frames. Fresh from a trip to the Cayman Islands, where he gave a paid speech at a black-tie leadership awards banquet Saturday night, Mike Huckabee returned to the trail in preparation for Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary with a trip to Olympic Lanes in South Milwaukee. He and his wife, Janet, were greeted by a few hundred supporters, though some had clearly shown up just to throw a few frames and were surprised by the gathered media. A few recoiled at the sight of cameramen amassed at the door and decided to go home. But by the time the Huckabees made their way to lane 23, surrounded by a huddle of media and fans while donning their bowling shoes, the whole place was paying attention. The Huckabees combined for an 86 in ten frames with each throwing a few gutterballs and Janet picking up a spare (the highlight of the effort). The former first couple of Arkansas displayed solid, if rusty, form. "He took me bowling on our first date," said Janet, who was a little more consistent as a bowler--Mike’s attempts, in a metaphor of political leanings, strayed to the far right on most of his throws. They took on a team of media members, including yours truly, who outdid the Huckabees with a 112. Huckabee picked out a few reluctant members of the traveling press and hammed it up by turning the cameras on them as cameramen and embedded network producers lined up for their turn to bowl.

    After shaking hands and signing "I Like Mike" campaign signs for a good 45 minutes, Huckabee gave an impromptu press conference, where he was immediately asked about his trip to the Caymans. His tanned face and beet-red ears weren't from sitting on the beach, he said, but from running seven miles on Saturday. (Huckabee still hopes to run the Boston marathon in April.) Huckabee has spent the last few months railing against offshore tax havens such as the Caymans for keeping “$12 trillion” out of the U.S. economy, and Sunday he said that he had met for an hour with a Caymans official whom he called “the equivalent of the prime minister.” Though the campaign has refused to name the official, Huckabee said the two discussed "efforts to clean up the banking industry and make themselves a financial services center, not so much to launder money.” Not that there’s anything shady about the Caymans' financial dealings. “It’s perfectly legal,” he said. “The problem is why should U.S. investors have to put their money in places other than the United States? Because our tax system is chocking the daylights out of investors.” Which brought him to his idea for the Fair Tax, which he argues would bring capital back to the U.S. by doing away with the federal income tax. So, what did the Caymans official think of the Fair Tax? “I’m sure he would rather not see us have it.”

    Today, Huckabee is making three campaign stops around Wisconsin before flying to Little Rock, Ark., later this afternoon, just as he did on the eve of last Tuesday's Potomac Primary, to spend some time at home. He'll continue on to Texas and Ohio later in the week no matter the outcome of the Wisconsin primary.

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  • Memo to Huck: No More Room for Miracles

    Holly Bailey | Feb 13, 2008 10:25 AM

    Contributed by Holly Bailey

    There’s still plenty of uncertainty about the race for the White House at this point, especially on the Democratic side, but here’s relatively reliable prediction: John McCain won’t ask Mike Huckabee to drop his bid for the White House.

    But that doesn’t mean his staff won’t. For the second week in a row, a senior McCain aide has drafted a memo arguing it’s “mathematically impossible” for Huckabee to win the Republican nomination. “He now needs 950 delegates to the secure the required 1,191,” writes Rick Davis, McCain’s campaign manager, in a memo circulated late last night. “But in the remaining contests, there are only 774 delegates available. He would need to win 123 percent of remaining delegates.” In other words: Hint hint, Huck. You can’t win.

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  • Fineman: Obama Smiles, but Worries for McCain

    Andrew Romano | Feb 12, 2008 11:45 PM
    Here's my NEWSWEEK colleague Howard Fineman with a typically smart take on tonight's Potomac Primary exit polls. I'll be back in the AM with my analysis.

    Looking closely at the NBC exit polls from Virginia, I see numbers that will make delightful reading for the Barack Obama campaign--and a cause for deep concern in John McCain's camp. Obama, the figures show, is expanding the demographic reach of his surging Democratic candidacy, while McCain is hemmed in by his increasingly glaring failure to win over conservatives and evangelical Christians.

    With a large turnout among Democrats and independents (anyone can vote in any primary in Virginia), Obama scored smashing victories over Hillary Clinton among groups with whom he needed to show strength. Everybody knows he has the African-American vote locked up tight, as well as young people, single men and affluent, well-educated voters. But the other winning percentages in Virginia are the news Tuesday night, and they are pretty powerful. According to the NBC exit polls, Obama carried:

    -- women: 58 percent
    -- white men: 55 percent
    -- latino: 55 percent
    -- 60 years old and older: 52 percent
    -- those with incomes under $30,000: 68 percent
    -- independents: 67 percent
    -- Roman Catholics: 52 percent

    As the campaign moves foward, Obama has to be able to argue that he can reach the whole country, and the Virginia numbers are the best evidence yet that he can. His weakest catagory is among white self-described Democrats--the most regular of the party regulars. But he is closing in on them.

    The McCain story in Virginia is the story of a campaign in danger of slowing down at a critical moment. In this late-sesason battle with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, McCain needed a respectable showing among evangelicals and conservatives. He didn’t get it. More than a third of voters in the GOP primary described themselves as "very conservative"--and they voted for Huckabee over McCain by a breathtaking 70-21 percent margin. Among born again Christians--who were 47 percent of all voters in the primary--Huckabee won by a 66-26 percent margin. And among the two thirds of GOP primary voters who said they wanted abortions to be illegal in all or most circumstances, Huckabee won by a 57-34-percent margin.

    McCain ended up winning Virginia--narrowly--but the exit polls must give him pause. Does McCain need Huckabee at his side to win a race in the fall? Perhaps not, but McCain needs the Huckabee voters, now more than ever.

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  • The Potomac Primary: Three Things to Watch

    Andrew Romano | Feb 12, 2008 04:01 PM

    Okay, so it isn't exactly Super Tuesday. But even though the polls predict that Barack Obama (18 points ahead in Virginia; 22 points ahead in Maryland) and John McCain (about 20 ahead in Virginia; about 30 in Maryland) will sweep today's Potomac Primary, there's still news to be made tonight. We MSMers may forget from time to time, but a primary doesn't have to be unpredictable to be important. Here's what I'll be watching as the returns roll in:

    1) The Virginia Democratic Exit Polls: Barring any big surprises--namely, a Hillary upset or very close second--tonight's statistics will be tomorrow's story. And I've got a hunch that most of the media attention will focus on Virginia, an increasingly purple state that Dems hope to pick up next November. 

    There are two demographics to flag: a) the commonwealth's white voters and b) today's Republican/Independent crossover participants.

    Because Obama typically wins more than 80 percent of the black vote, the media has an irritating (if understandable) tendency to credit his victories in states with sizable black populations solely to his "bloc" support among African-Americans--an analysis that, even when statistically supportable, makes it seem as if the analyst is dismissing the entire outcome. There's a risk that could happen tonight in Virginia. In 2004, black voters made up 33 percent of the commonwealth's Democratic primary electorate--meaning that Obama only needs 36 percent of the white vote to win. But what if Obama wins the white vote, too? That's a much more interesting story--especially because pre-primary polls show Clinton leading the subgroup 49 to 41. If Obama runs strong among whites in the delegate-rich ring of D.C. suburbs in northern Virginia, he could very well surpass Clinton--and earn a day of headlines saying that he too can win in states with broader demographics. It would rebut a key Clinton charge (that Obama excels mainly in activist-based caucuses) and bode well for Ohio and Texas, which, like Virginia, are microcosms of the larger electorate.

    Republicans and Independents may be even more important than whites in shaping the new narrative. Virginia is the first open primary since Super Tuesday--both Maryland and D.C. are closed to registered party members--so if Obama crushes Clinton among non-Democrats, reporters will likely read it as a sign of general election strength. And pay attention to which party attracts more Independents overall. If the Dems come out ahead--and Obama wins the swing vote--it'll augur well for his potential chances next November against John McCain.

    2) Wisconsin: The Badger State hosts the next major primary a week from today--and Clinton has been giving off mixed signals about whether she plans to compete. According to the conventional wisdom, Wisconsin is largely seen as Obama country--thanks, as Ben Smith puts it, to "big college campuses, a primary open to independents, the ineffable nature of a state that elects Russ Feingold, and the latest polls." While Clinton is spending tonight in El Paso, Texas, Obama is already in Madison with a full day of stops in Janesville, Waukesha and Racine ahead of him. But the race could be closer than the pundits expect. "I don't think you can really give a leg up to anybody between the two of them," said Mike Tate, who ran Howard Dean's Wisconsin campaign in 2004, in today's Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. "There are scenarios where Barack wins and where Hillary wins." Meanwhile, there are early signs that Clinton isn't abandoning Wisconsin altogether. She's already launched a positive health care ad in the state, and the campaign just announced that Bill will stump Thursday in Milwaukee, Madison and La Crosse. Whether this is merely an effort to maximize her delegate tally without looking like she tried and failed (see: South Carolina) or the start of an actual effort largely depends, I think, on tonight's results. If Clinton can score any surprises--a closer-than-expected silver in Virginia would work--then expect a renewed interest in cheese, brewskis and the Green Bay Packers. If not? More time in Texas and Ohio. 

    3) Mike Huckabee's Margin in Virginia: In the latest CNN delegate estimate, McCain leads Huckabee 723 to 217, with only about 1,000 delegates left to be awarded--which means Huckabee would have to win basically every remaining delegate to reach the 1,191 needed to clinch the nomination. But while most of the Republican party has accepted reality, Huckabee hasn't. "I didn't major in math," he has said. "I majored in miracles."

    Even miracles are about to get less likely. Tonight, McCain is expected to expand his lead by about 110 delegates--Virginia, with 63, is winner take all--making it mathematically impossible for Huckabee to get the nod. Sure, Huck has every right to run as a "sparring partner" until McCain hits 1,191, but expect calls for his withdrawal to increase in volume and intensity starting tomorrow. His best hope for saving face (other than a win)? A surprisingly close second in Virginia. In the latest SurveyUSA poll, McCain's lead has narrowed to 11 points--plunging from 32 two days earlier. It's a testament to Huckabee's "near-constant TV presence, never-say-die support among evangelicals and FairTaxers and position as the sole remaining McCain alternative," as Jonathan Martin notes. A close silver won't be enough to kickstart a Huckabee comeback, but it may be enough to keep him keeping on.

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  • Hard Times for Huck's Bunch

    Andrew Romano | Feb 12, 2008 02:59 PM

    By Matthew Philips 

    Nothing is easy on the Huckabee campaign these days. As if the inevitability of the McCain nomination wasn’t enough for the traveling press corps to sometimes feel a little forgotten, the road (and skies) traveled haven’t exactly been smooth.

    First, the press plane made an emergency landing last week in New Jersey after the controls went dead, forcing the two pilots to muscle the small craft safely down through thousands of feet of turbulence. Then on Sunday, with high winds causing delays to many commercial flights across Virginia, the campaign endured two harrowing plane rides (DC to Lynchburg; Lynchburg to Richmond) with enough bumps and drops and wind-blown landings to raise a round of applause upon touchdown. Finally, on the way to the Dulles Airport to catch a plane to Little Rock this morning, the press van ran out of gas and had to pull over to the side of the Dulles Toll Road.

    We all looked at each other, still bleary and starting to laugh. As the driver tried the ignition again and again, a feisty campaign staffer shouted from the front seat: “We’re out of gas, dude! Call your dispatcher!”  We were 13 miles from Dulles, stalled on the side of the road directly opposite the USA Today building at 9:25 a.m.--and the plane was leaving in five minutes. The staffer called a colleague. “We have a big problem,” he said. “The van ran out of gas. No, I’m not kidding.”

    But then... a miracle. A second van, this one carrying staffers, reporters and campaign strategist Chip Saltsman, pulled up behind us on the side of the road. Suddenly, Huckabee’s bodyman Drake Jarman was standing outside the window. “I’m your knight in shining armor,” he said, herding us onto the second van and assuring us that our bags would follow us to the next stop. They did, after yet another van was dispatched to retrieve them. Unfortunately, it took another 90 minutes our stuff to show up. The reason for the delay: the luggage vehicle also ran out of gas.

    One campaign, it seems, only gets so many miracles.

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  • A Happy Huckabee Campaign Fights On, and Will Challenge in Washington

    Editors | Feb 10, 2008 03:10 PM
    By Matthew Philips

    The Huckabee Campaign is getting happier by the day. What was already an upbeat, and playful campaign—a reflection of its good-humored candidate and relatively young and small staff—has become more so after a solid performance in Saturday's primaries. Campaign staffers went out drinking in Washington, DC's Adams Morgan neighborhood Saturday night to celebrate a thorough, 30 point win in Kansas and a narrow, unexpected victory in Louisiana, which Huckabee referred to as "shocking" at a press conference on Sunday. Though they're not letting it go to their heads. There is still very much a nothing to lose attitude about the campaign as they've decided to just let this thing ride out and see what happens. Huckabee started the week with the mindset that victory is defined as how long he is able to keep McCain from getting the 1,191 delegates needed for the nomination, and that thinking hasn't changed after wrapping up a great week that included his first wins since Iowa, adding 200 delegates to his count.

    The campaign loves its underdog status. Still, Huckabee and McCain, who appear to have forged a genuinely close relationship over the last year, have pretty much refrained from going at each other. Huckabee has vowed not to engage in any serious attacks on McCain, saying he'll to continue focusing on defining himself and nurturing his growing insurgency. Time will tell if McCain takes the offensive against Huckabee, a move that would almost admit that he's a threat.

    Increasing calls from Republican leaders for Huckabee to drop out have only served to embolden the campaign's resolve to stay in. Asked on Sunday about Karl Rove's recent request for him to clear the GOP field, Huckabee said, "The point is, Karl is a supporter of John McCain. I've not had my supporters tell me to get out of the race. The fact that the opposing team has their cheerleaders and band blowing songs against me, hardly motivates me to quit. It only motivates me to play harder. So if they think that what they're doing is getting a chorus of voices that will make me say 'OK, it's time to leave,' they don't know me very well."

    Huckabee spent Sunday morning as a guest on NBC's Meet the Press and CBS's Face the Nation. Then he flew to Lynchburg, Virginia where he got a warm, big religious right welcome at Jerry Falwell's Thomas Road Baptist Church. We're now in Richmond, where he'll headquarter his watch party for Tuesday's Potomac Primaries. Even if he doesn't do well in Virginia, Maryland, and DC, don't expect Huckabee to get out anytime soon, with the delegate-heavy Texas primary looming on March 4.

    UPDATE: On Sunday afternoon, Huckabee Campaign chairman Ed Rollins called an impromptu meeting in his Richmond hotel room to tell reporters that the campaign intends to challenge the final results for the Washington State Republican precinct caucuses. Late Saturday night, with 87 percent of the vote in, and McCain leading Huckabee by just 242 votes, Washington State Party Chair Luke Esser called the race for McCain and suspended the vote count, with about 1,500 ballots still to be counted. Rollins said the campaign's lawyers, after repeated attempts, finally contacted Esser on Sunday afternoon and asked him which Washington precincts were yet to be counted. Esser, according to Rollins, said he didn't know, and then refused to let them be present while the votes were counted. "He said how dare Mike Huckabee challenge us… then he hung up on our lawyer," said Rollins. "This is an absurd process," he continued. "We obviously had great momentum yesterday with a big victory in Kansas and a big victory in Louisiana. I'm not accusing the McCain campaign of anything; I'm just accusing the state party chairman of using very bad judgment. We're going to fully pursue this legally." Rollins said the campaign is prepared to go to court and to take the case all the way to the Republican National Convention in September. The Huckabee insurgency continues.
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  • The Huckabee Press Corps Makes an Emergency Landing

    Editors | Feb 7, 2008 12:30 PM

    By Matthew Philips

    This morning Mike Huckabee arrived at the Little Rock airport looking like he’d had a rough night--and not because he'd been too-enthusiastically celebrating his Super Tuesday wins (The former preacher doesn’t drink). Rather, he was throwing up all night after catching what he thinks is some some sort of stomach virus. “Not feeling so good,” he said slouched on a couch and dressed in sweats, slippers, and an overcoat; a cup of tea in one hand, a Gatorade in the other, and looking a little pale. At 7:30 he shuffled onto the tarmac and into his plane headed for New York City for a media blitz that will include appearances on the Tyra Banks Show and The Colbert Report.

    The eight members of the traveling press loaded onto a separate jet, small but swanky: pivoting leather chairs, wood paneling, a stocked mini bar and plenty of Nilla wafers, animal crackers and chocolate Teddy Grahams to go around. The TV screen said we were going 750 miles an hour once we hit 30,000 feet.

    And then right around New Jersey things got a little hairy. A series of dips and bumps, the kind that bring your stomach into your throat and make you grab the bottom of your seat to stay in it while the plane drops a hundred feet at a time. A faint alarm was going off, but we didn’t give it much thought. It was all part of flying a small jet in winter. We’d hit rough weather before, flying around the South in the last few days. We all thought it was kinda fun. One reporter was fast asleep. The cockpit door was open and we could see the two pilots, whiteknuckled gripping the controls, toggling switches and knobs. Then a sharp bank to the right, which both pilots leaned into, over the brown trees and roofs of Morristown, New Jersey, and within a minute we were on the ground.

    Once we came to a stop, the pilots, both visibly shaken, turned around, exhaled deeply and told us the news: we had to make an emergency landing 40 miles south of where we were supposed to be. They’d lost all controls and instrumentation: no autopilot, no navigation system, no automatic rudder controls even. They had to bring us down manually, physically struggling to keep from losing altitude too fast. We all looked at each other in disbelief as we filed off past a fire truck and a man in a flame retardant silver suit. Even on the campaign trail, there are some things you are better off not knowing.


  • The Super Tuesday Wrap: 'A Democratic Muddle' and 'Two Cheers for McCain'

    Andrew Romano | Feb 6, 2008 09:36 AM

    Here's NEWSWEEK's Arian Campo-Flores on what yesterday means for the Democratic race: 

    Beyond the fight for delegates, though, is a far less tangible battle: one over perception. In the buildup to Super Tuesday, Obama's candidacy seemed to be surging. He scored a series of high-profile endorsements, he raised about $32 million in January, his celebrity-studded campaign events took on the character of religious revivals and he was quickly gaining on Clinton in the polls. Tuesday night's results, Clinton's advisers argue, managed to slow, if not block, that momentum. "We had to listen to two weeks of 'Oh, you're not having rallies, you're not appearing with celebrities, you're having these boring discussions about issues'," said one adviser who didn't want to be on the record appearing to gloat.

    The campaign was especially gleeful about Clinton's victory in Massachusetts, where Obama benefited from the highly coveted endorsement of Sen. Edward Kennedy, as well as that of Sen. John Kerry and Gov. Deval Patrick. Late deciders went mostly for Clinton, advisers pointed out-proof, they argued, that voters, unlike the media, are not blinded by Obama's star appeal. The Clinton team also celebrated her victories in Republican states like Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee. "This proves Hillary Clinton can win anywhere in the country," said campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe. "The voters finally got tired of the pundits and prognosticators telling them how they were going to vote."

    Obama's side had its own triumphs to savor. One that was especially sweet: Missouri. Just before Obama bounded on stage in Chicago, the Clinton campaign released a statement touting her victory in the bellwether state of Missouri. "Hillary's Big Night Continues," it read. Problem was, Obama ended up winning the state. In the rear of the Chicago ballroom, Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, who endorsed Obama, clapped and cheered at the turnaround. "People are getting to know Barack Obama," she told Newsweek. "The story that needs to come out of tonight is that this was supposed to be the end. This was going to wrap it up for Senator Clinton." Yet as Obama senior strategist David Axelrod put it, "We took on the big bad machine that was going to finish us off on February 5 and they didn't."

    Looking ahead, the Obama camp remains optimistic. For one thing, the day's results put to rest some key arguments against his candidacy. He won Connecticut, Delaware and Colorado, where independents weren't allowed to vote, thus proving that he could win without them. And he captured a healthy 44 percent of the Hispanic vote in Arizona, showing he could make inroads in a constituency that has largely aligned itself with Clinton. Now, the Obama campaign argues, Clinton's strongest states-including New York, New Jersey and California-are behind her. "We always thought she had an advantage today," said campaign manager David Plouffe. "As we started planning this, February 5 was always a tough hill to climb. Now we move on to what we thought was always a more favorable part of the calendar."

    Read the rest here

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