By Matthew Philips 

Will he or won't he? Is he going to concede tonight in Texas or tomorrow in Little Rock, or ever? That was the question at the Mike Huckabee watch party in Irving, Texas, in the hour leading up to his speech as reporters scrummed around trying to catch the arm of an aide who could answer. For the whole day the answer was no, not tonight at least, maybe not even tomorrow. Even this afternoon, Ed Rollins was insisting to me on the phone that a concession was not in the offing tonight. But then an aide was quoted anonymously by NBC that "the handwriting was on the wall" and that a concession was imminent.

Ten minutes later Huckabee was on the stage, looking misty eyed with his wife Janet, and talking about ... former Kansas City Royals baseball star George Brett, and how though his last out was an easy chopper to third, he ran as hard as he could all the way down to first base. Aha! So he was conceding. "It's been a great journey," Huckabee said. "I extended my congratulations to John McCain," he told us, acknowledging that it looked apparent that McCain would get to 1,191 delegates tonight. But even tonight, Huckabee didn't utter an explicit "It's time to get out of the race" line. Still, it seems his 2008 political journey is over.

By Matthew Philips

Apparently, someone out there wants Mike Huckabee to drop out of the race, or at least wants us all to think he's about to. Just before 1 p.m. today an e-mail went out to 19 members of the Huckabee campaign, seemingly sent by campaign chair Ed Rollins, with the subject "Campaign Announcement." The e-mail explained that Rollins had just had a long conversation with Huckabee, and it included a message from the candidate himself saying that he'd be offering his formal concession this evening--quite the shock to members of the traveling press, who are scheduled to fly with Huckabee to Little Rock tonight and have been told again and again and again by candidate and advisers alike that he will not be conceding tonight, if ever. "It's completely fictional," Rollins said on the phone an hour after the message went out.

The e-mail was sent from an address similar to one that Rollins uses, and as it made its way around news desks this afternoon, a few telltale signs marked it as a fake. For one, the alleged message from Huckabee incorrectly refers to his weight-loss memoir, "Stop Digging Your Grave With a Knife and Fork," as a novel. It has Huckabee calling himself "the William F. Buckley of the 21st Century," a comparison he's never made, with a man he's certainly never invoked on the campaign trail. The message continues by saying that Huckabee plans to "follow the Reagan model of 1976 and run again in four years," which may very well be Huckabee's plan but certainly not something he would say so plainly. The most obvious blunder, though, is that the author says that after losing to Ford in 1976, Reagan "returned to his role as Governor of California," which he did not. The e-mail ends with a weakly veiled attempt to bash Huckabee while seeming to praise him. "The truth is that the Huckabee political future doesn't die, it simply fades, fades away. God Bless you all," it says, before concluding with a jaunty "-Mike"

Rollins said that the campaign has no idea where the e-mail came from, but that their "computer people are chasing it down." A veteran of numerous political campaigns over the years, Rollins didn't seem too upset about the hoax. "It bothers me it did happen," he said, before noting, "It's all part of the game."

As to where it measures in terms of previous dirty tricks, Rollins singled out James Carville, who in 1973 somehow snatched a campaign strategy memo from a locked drawer in Rollins's desk and then leaked it to the press. Anyone seen the Ragin' Cajun today? 

Here's NEWSWEEK's Matthew Philips with a report from the fun-loving Huckabee campaign plane. I will note, for the record, that Huck's people didn't invent aisle surfing. I personally witnessed Josh Romney riding down the aisle of a charter jet in Florida (he crashed into my armrest). But good to know the GOP's grommets are still dropping in.

After dissing the earnest, pro-Obama hipsters of "Yes We Can," praising their anti-McCain parodists ("John.i.am") and comparing the maniacal "Hillary4U&Me" to a jingle for hepatitis B, it's only fair that Stumper takes note of the latest supporter-generated musical extravaganza: Mike Huckabee's "High Hopes" (above).

How does it compare? I'm torn. On the one hand, I appreciate the historical allusion; originally popularized in 1959 by Frank Sinatra, "High Hopes" was rerecorded by the Rat Pack in 1960 to serve as a campaign theme for John F. Kennedy. (Lyrics included the immortal phrase, "Oops, there goes the opposition -- KERPLOP!") But whatever trivia points the Huckafans may have scored by plundering the past, they've more than lost with their actual rendition of the song. Without spoiling the surprise, let me say that "overeager Disney World cast member performs at Asian karaoke joint circa 1997" wouldn't be too far off the mark.

By Matthew Philips

It was the epitome of middle-class middle America: a bowling alley in Milwaukee, Wis., on a Sunday afternoon. Nachos and pizza and pitchers of Miller Light for $8, NASCAR on TV, kids plunking tokens into arcade games, Mike and Janet Huckabee bowling 10 frames. Fresh from a trip to the Cayman Islands, where he gave a paid speech at a black-tie leadership awards banquet Saturday night, Mike Huckabee returned to the trail in preparation for Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary with a trip to Olympic Lanes in South Milwaukee. He and his wife, Janet, were greeted by a few hundred supporters, though some had clearly shown up just to throw a few frames and were surprised by the gathered media. A few recoiled at the sight of cameramen amassed at the door and decided to go home. But by the time the Huckabees made their way to lane 23, surrounded by a huddle of media and fans while donning their bowling shoes, the whole place was paying attention. The Huckabees combined for an 86 in ten frames with each throwing a few gutterballs and Janet picking up a spare (the highlight of the effort). The former first couple of Arkansas displayed solid, if rusty, form. "He took me bowling on our first date," said Janet, who was a little more consistent as a bowler--Mike’s attempts, in a metaphor of political leanings, strayed to the far right on most of his throws. They took on a team of media members, including yours truly, who outdid the Huckabees with a 112. Huckabee picked out a few reluctant members of the traveling press and hammed it up by turning the cameras on them as cameramen and embedded network producers lined up for their turn to bowl.

After shaking hands and signing "I Like Mike" campaign signs for a good 45 minutes, Huckabee gave an impromptu press conference, where he was immediately asked about his trip to the Caymans. His tanned face and beet-red ears weren't from sitting on the beach, he said, but from running seven miles on Saturday. (Huckabee still hopes to run the Boston marathon in April.) Huckabee has spent the last few months railing against offshore tax havens such as the Caymans for keeping “$12 trillion” out of the U.S. economy, and Sunday he said that he had met for an hour with a Caymans official whom he called “the equivalent of the prime minister.” Though the campaign has refused to name the official, Huckabee said the two discussed "efforts to clean up the banking industry and make themselves a financial services center, not so much to launder money.” Not that there’s anything shady about the Caymans' financial dealings. “It’s perfectly legal,” he said. “The problem is why should U.S. investors have to put their money in places other than the United States? Because our tax system is chocking the daylights out of investors.” Which brought him to his idea for the Fair Tax, which he argues would bring capital back to the U.S. by doing away with the federal income tax. So, what did the Caymans official think of the Fair Tax? “I’m sure he would rather not see us have it.”

Today, Huckabee is making three campaign stops around Wisconsin before flying to Little Rock, Ark., later this afternoon, just as he did on the eve of last Tuesday's Potomac Primary, to spend some time at home. He'll continue on to Texas and Ohio later in the week no matter the outcome of the Wisconsin primary.

Contributed by Holly Bailey

There’s still plenty of uncertainty about the race for the White House at this point, especially on the Democratic side, but here’s relatively reliable prediction: John McCain won’t ask Mike Huckabee to drop his bid for the White House.

But that doesn’t mean his staff won’t. For the second week in a row, a senior McCain aide has drafted a memo arguing it’s “mathematically impossible” for Huckabee to win the Republican nomination. “He now needs 950 delegates to the secure the required 1,191,” writes Rick Davis, McCain’s campaign manager, in a memo circulated late last night. “But in the remaining contests, there are only 774 delegates available. He would need to win 123 percent of remaining delegates.” In other words: Hint hint, Huck. You can’t win.

Okay, so it isn't exactly Super Tuesday. But even though the polls predict that Barack Obama (18 points ahead in Virginia; 22 points ahead in Maryland) and John McCain (about 20 ahead in Virginia; about 30 in Maryland) will sweep today's Potomac Primary, there's still news to be made tonight. We MSMers may forget from time to time, but a primary doesn't have to be unpredictable to be important. Here's what I'll be watching as the returns roll in:

1) The Virginia Democratic Exit Polls: Barring any big surprises--namely, a Hillary upset or very close second--tonight's statistics will be tomorrow's story. And I've got a hunch that most of the media attention will focus on Virginia, an increasingly purple state that Dems hope to pick up next November. 

There are two demographics to flag: a) the commonwealth's white voters and b) today's Republican/Independent crossover participants.

Because Obama typically wins more than 80 percent of the black vote, the media has an irritating (if understandable) tendency to credit his victories in states with sizable black populations solely to his "bloc" support among African-Americans--an analysis that, even when statistically supportable, makes it seem as if the analyst is dismissing the entire outcome. There's a risk that could happen tonight in Virginia. In 2004, black voters made up 33 percent of the commonwealth's Democratic primary electorate--meaning that Obama only needs 36 percent of the white vote to win. But what if Obama wins the white vote, too? That's a much more interesting story--especially because pre-primary polls show Clinton leading the subgroup 49 to 41. If Obama runs strong among whites in the delegate-rich ring of D.C. suburbs in northern Virginia, he could very well surpass Clinton--and earn a day of headlines saying that he too can win in states with broader demographics. It would rebut a key Clinton charge (that Obama excels mainly in activist-based caucuses) and bode well for Ohio and Texas, which, like Virginia, are microcosms of the larger electorate.

Republicans and Independents may be even more important than whites in shaping the new narrative. Virginia is the first open primary since Super Tuesday--both Maryland and D.C. are closed to registered party members--so if Obama crushes Clinton among non-Democrats, reporters will likely read it as a sign of general election strength. And pay attention to which party attracts more Independents overall. If the Dems come out ahead--and Obama wins the swing vote--it'll augur well for his potential chances next November against John McCain.

2) Wisconsin: The Badger State hosts the next major primary a week from today--and Clinton has been giving off mixed signals about whether she plans to compete. According to the conventional wisdom, Wisconsin is largely seen as Obama country--thanks, as Ben Smith puts it, to "big college campuses, a primary open to independents, the ineffable nature of a state that elects Russ Feingold, and the latest polls." While Clinton is spending tonight in El Paso, Texas, Obama is already in Madison with a full day of stops in Janesville, Waukesha and Racine ahead of him. But the race could be closer than the pundits expect. "I don't think you can really give a leg up to anybody between the two of them," said Mike Tate, who ran Howard Dean's Wisconsin campaign in 2004, in today's Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. "There are scenarios where Barack wins and where Hillary wins." Meanwhile, there are early signs that Clinton isn't abandoning Wisconsin altogether. She's already launched a positive health care ad in the state, and the campaign just announced that Bill will stump Thursday in Milwaukee, Madison and La Crosse. Whether this is merely an effort to maximize her delegate tally without looking like she tried and failed (see: South Carolina) or the start of an actual effort largely depends, I think, on tonight's results. If Clinton can score any surprises--a closer-than-expected silver in Virginia would work--then expect a renewed interest in cheese, brewskis and the Green Bay Packers. If not? More time in Texas and Ohio. 

3) Mike Huckabee's Margin in Virginia: In the latest CNN delegate estimate, McCain leads Huckabee 723 to 217, with only about 1,000 delegates left to be awarded--which means Huckabee would have to win basically every remaining delegate to reach the 1,191 needed to clinch the nomination. But while most of the Republican party has accepted reality, Huckabee hasn't. "I didn't major in math," he has said. "I majored in miracles."

Even miracles are about to get less likely. Tonight, McCain is expected to expand his lead by about 110 delegates--Virginia, with 63, is winner take all--making it mathematically impossible for Huckabee to get the nod. Sure, Huck has every right to run as a "sparring partner" until McCain hits 1,191, but expect calls for his withdrawal to increase in volume and intensity starting tomorrow. His best hope for saving face (other than a win)? A surprisingly close second in Virginia. In the latest SurveyUSA poll, McCain's lead has narrowed to 11 points--plunging from 32 two days earlier. It's a testament to Huckabee's "near-constant TV presence, never-say-die support among evangelicals and FairTaxers and position as the sole remaining McCain alternative," as Jonathan Martin notes. A close silver won't be enough to kickstart a Huckabee comeback, but it may be enough to keep him keeping on.

By Matthew Philips 

Nothing is easy on the Huckabee campaign these days. As if the inevitability of the McCain nomination wasn’t enough for the traveling press corps to sometimes feel a little forgotten, the road (and skies) traveled haven’t exactly been smooth.

First, the press plane made an emergency landing last week in New Jersey after the controls went dead, forcing the two pilots to muscle the small craft safely down through thousands of feet of turbulence. Then on Sunday, with high winds causing delays to many commercial flights across Virginia, the campaign endured two harrowing plane rides (DC to Lynchburg; Lynchburg to Richmond) with enough bumps and drops and wind-blown landings to raise a round of applause upon touchdown. Finally, on the way to the Dulles Airport to catch a plane to Little Rock this morning, the press van ran out of gas and had to pull over to the side of the Dulles Toll Road.

We all looked at each other, still bleary and starting to laugh. As the driver tried the ignition again and again, a feisty campaign staffer shouted from the front seat: “We’re out of gas, dude! Call your dispatcher!”  We were 13 miles from Dulles, stalled on the side of the road directly opposite the USA Today building at 9:25 a.m.--and the plane was leaving in five minutes. The staffer called a colleague. “We have a big problem,” he said. “The van ran out of gas. No, I’m not kidding.”

But then... a miracle. A second van, this one carrying staffers, reporters and campaign strategist Chip Saltsman, pulled up behind us on the side of the road. Suddenly, Huckabee’s bodyman Drake Jarman was standing outside the window. “I’m your knight in shining armor,” he said, herding us onto the second van and assuring us that our bags would follow us to the next stop. They did, after yet another van was dispatched to retrieve them. Unfortunately, it took another 90 minutes our stuff to show up. The reason for the delay: the luggage vehicle also ran out of gas.

One campaign, it seems, only gets so many miracles.

By Matthew Philips

This morning Mike Huckabee arrived at the Little Rock airport looking like he’d had a rough night--and not because he'd been too-enthusiastically celebrating his Super Tuesday wins (The former preacher doesn’t drink). Rather, he was throwing up all night after catching what he thinks is some some sort of stomach virus. “Not feeling so good,” he said slouched on a couch and dressed in sweats, slippers, and an overcoat; a cup of tea in one hand, a Gatorade in the other, and looking a little pale. At 7:30 he shuffled onto the tarmac and into his plane headed for New York City for a media blitz that will include appearances on the Tyra Banks Show and The Colbert Report.

The eight members of the traveling press loaded onto a separate jet, small but swanky: pivoting leather chairs, wood paneling, a stocked mini bar and plenty of Nilla wafers, animal crackers and chocolate Teddy Grahams to go around. The TV screen said we were going 750 miles an hour once we hit 30,000 feet.

And then right around New Jersey things got a little hairy. A series of dips and bumps, the kind that bring your stomach into your throat and make you grab the bottom of your seat to stay in it while the plane drops a hundred feet at a time. A faint alarm was going off, but we didn’t give it much thought. It was all part of flying a small jet in winter. We’d hit rough weather before, flying around the South in the last few days. We all thought it was kinda fun. One reporter was fast asleep. The cockpit door was open and we could see the two pilots, whiteknuckled gripping the controls, toggling switches and knobs. Then a sharp bank to the right, which both pilots leaned into, over the brown trees and roofs of Morristown, New Jersey, and within a minute we were on the ground.

Once we came to a stop, the pilots, both visibly shaken, turned around, exhaled deeply and told us the news: we had to make an emergency landing 40 miles south of where we were supposed to be. They’d lost all controls and instrumentation: no autopilot, no navigation system, no automatic rudder controls even. They had to bring us down manually, physically struggling to keep from losing altitude too fast. We all looked at each other in disbelief as we filed off past a fire truck and a man in a flame retardant silver suit. Even on the campaign trail, there are some things you are better off not knowing.

Here's NEWSWEEK's Arian Campo-Flores on what yesterday means for the Democratic race: 

Beyond the fight for delegates, though, is a far less tangible battle: one over perception. In the buildup to Super Tuesday, Obama's candidacy seemed to be surging. He scored a series of high-profile endorsements, he raised about $32 million in January, his celebrity-studded campaign events took on the character of religious revivals and he was quickly gaining on Clinton in the polls. Tuesday night's results, Clinton's advisers argue, managed to slow, if not block, that momentum. "We had to listen to two weeks of 'Oh, you're not having rallies, you're not appearing with celebrities, you're having these boring discussions about issues'," said one adviser who didn't want to be on the record appearing to gloat.

The campaign was especially gleeful about Clinton's victory in Massachusetts, where Obama benefited from the highly coveted endorsement of Sen. Edward Kennedy, as well as that of Sen. John Kerry and Gov. Deval Patrick. Late deciders went mostly for Clinton, advisers pointed out-proof, they argued, that voters, unlike the media, are not blinded by Obama's star appeal. The Clinton team also celebrated her victories in Republican states like Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee. "This proves Hillary Clinton can win anywhere in the country," said campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe. "The voters finally got tired of the pundits and prognosticators telling them how they were going to vote."

Obama's side had its own triumphs to savor. One that was especially sweet: Missouri. Just before Obama bounded on stage in Chicago, the Clinton campaign released a statement touting her victory in the bellwether state of Missouri. "Hillary's Big Night Continues," it read. Problem was, Obama ended up winning the state. In the rear of the Chicago ballroom, Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, who endorsed Obama, clapped and cheered at the turnaround. "People are getting to know Barack Obama," she told Newsweek. "The story that needs to come out of tonight is that this was supposed to be the end. This was going to wrap it up for Senator Clinton." Yet as Obama senior strategist David Axelrod put it, "We took on the big bad machine that was going to finish us off on February 5 and they didn't."

Looking ahead, the Obama camp remains optimistic. For one thing, the day's results put to rest some key arguments against his candidacy. He won Connecticut, Delaware and Colorado, where independents weren't allowed to vote, thus proving that he could win without them. And he captured a healthy 44 percent of the Hispanic vote in Arizona, showing he could make inroads in a constituency that has largely aligned itself with Clinton. Now, the Obama campaign argues, Clinton's strongest states-including New York, New Jersey and California-are behind her. "We always thought she had an advantage today," said campaign manager David Plouffe. "As we started planning this, February 5 was always a tough hill to climb. Now we move on to what we thought was always a more favorable part of the calendar."

Read the rest here. 

The networks are calling the West Virginia state primary convention for Mike Huckabee, which is good news, of course, for the former Arkansas governor. But it may be even more significant--in a negative sense--for Mitt Romney. The West Virginia results represent a victory of passion over organization, and it's hard to read them as anything but a repudiation of the Massachusetts pol's* efforts to rally anti-McCain conservatives around his candidacy.

When Romney arrived this morning in Charleston to address the Republican convention, it was largely assumed that he had Mountain State in the bag. That confidence was partly the product of pure investment; his campaign went to work in the state in 2006, long before his rivals arrived, and Romney had visited repeatedly over the past several weeks. And part was establishment support; Mitt began the day with 280 committed state delegates (more than Huck or McCain) and all three West Virginia superdelegates in his column. Finally, the campaign expected its superior ground game to propel Romney to victory in state's new, chaotic "convention" process, which, like a caucus, would reward organization over name recognition or momentum. “We have had the only organizational presence in West Virginia to speak of,” John McCutcheon, a state consultant for Romney, told the New York Times this morning. “It’s all Romney all the time.”

So what happened? Romney led at first with 41 percent, but failed in the second round to secure the 50 percent necessary for a win. Supporters of McCain, who crashed and burned in the first round, may have joined forces with Team Huckabee in the second to put Huck over the top, 52-47. “Unfortunately, this is what Senator McCain’s inside Washington ways look like: he cut a backroom deal with the tax-and-spend candidate he thought could best stop Governor Romney’s campaign of conservative change,” said Romney spokesman Kevin Madden. No response yet from the McCain or Huckabee camps.

All due respect to Madden, c'est la vie caucus. What's clear from the results is that, despite his advantages, Romney was unable to absorb enough Southern conservatives into his coalition for a majority--even in a state where McCain had minimal support. That doesn't bode well for Romney's chances in Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama and Missouri--all hard-fought Dixieland contests where Mitt is hoping that right-wingers will catapult him to surprise first-place finishes as their anti-McCain candidate of choice. If the West Virginia pattern extends to stronger McCain states (like those listed above) Huck will likely continue to split the reliable right vote with Romney and pave a path to victory for the Arizona senator. Huckabee's early upset may even embolden his troops to turn out in great numbers across the South, further diluting Romney's share of the vote.

All in all, not the best way for Romney to start the day.

Here's NEWSWEEK's Matthew Philips on Mike Huckabee, who's barnstorming the South in an attempt to stay relevant:

Gov. Mike Huckabee is downright tired of people asking him when he's going to drop out of the race for president, particularly as speculation mounts that he's in it just to raise his profile in hopes of a vice presidential nod. The day after The New York Giants stunned the world and the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII, Huckabee reminded the press of the dangers of calling a contest before it's over.

"They were also talking about how the Patriots had the Super Bowl wrapped up and there wasn't any point in people watching," Huckabee said Monday at a campaign stop in Texarkana, Arkansas, the latest of several he's held recently in airplane hangars at small airports throughout the South. "With only eight percent of the delegates in, it's way too early for that."

A full month after rushing out of the gates by winning the Iowa Caucus, Huckabee's campaign is stuck in neutral. It's not that he's going backwards so much as John McCain is surging ahead and Mitt Romney has continued to move forward.

Style guru Tim Gunn, the creative director for Liz Claiborne, a veteran of Bravo's "Project Runway" and now host of "Tim Gunn's Guide to Style," spoke about the harsh worlds of fashion and politics with NEWSWEEK's Jessica Bennett. Excerpts:

NEWSWEEK: How important is image to a political campaign?
Tim Gunn: I can't imagine marginalizing image; it's critical. The clothes we wear send a message about how we want to be perceived, and about how we want to present ourselves to the world. I would think that there should be just as many image consultants involved in these campaigns as there are speechwriters.

What is it about politicians in particular—do you have to have bad taste to be one?
Well, all of these people come from Capitol Hill, and that place is another planet when it comes to fashion. I was on the Hill just this time last year, and I had all of these elected officials literally running from me saying, "I'm not a fashion person! Don't look at me!" In the beginning, I thought it was kind of sweet, but the more I thought about it, I began to find it appalling. You're an elected official. How many people see you and make judgments about you before they ever even know your point of view? I have to do something for these people.

I assume the people running from you were women. Do female politicians have it harder?
I'm deeply respectful of gender and of gender differences, and I like someone who acknowledges what his or her gender happens to be. I mean, are we ready for a male cross dresser in the White House? No. But frankly speaking, there are times when I wonder about Hillary.

Ha! Is there any female who pulls it off well?
I think Hillary should be taking a lesson from Nancy Pelosi, I really do. She, for me, is fashion on the Hill. She has a femininity yet a professionalism, and she has style. She's also not afraid to be a woman, and she celebrates it. She's not ever remotely vulgar or provocative in what she wears, but I have to say, she's a very sexy woman.

Alan Flusser, the author of ''Style and the Man,'' called Kennedy ''the last stylishly dressed president." Do you agree?
Well, you can't look at Kennedy without looking at Jackie, because they really enhanced each other. But it was clear that what was on the outside was important to them. They had a polish and a sophistication that was accessible, and I think that's why America embraced them. Those were the most glamorous days that Washington knew, and the only days that came remotely close to that were frankly—and forgive me—the Reagan years, and I think it was the Hollywood aspect. Reagan knew how to dress, Nancy had her own designer clothes, and there were a lot of movie stars walking around.

What's your take on the current candidates, as a group?
I look at them and I feel like they've stepped out of the 1980s. And what really disturbs me, deep down in my very core, is whether these candidates really think that having people talk about your clothes in a positive way could be a bad thing. To think that they might answer "yes" horrifies me.

Read the rest here.