Read the rest of Stumper's Superdelegate Watch coverage here. 

When Barack Obama woke up this morning at home in Chicago, he was 42 delegates from securing a mathematical majority and clinching the Democratic presidential nomination. Since then, previously undeclared superdelegates have been breaking for him at a rate of more than one an hour. Below, while the campaign working the phones in private and making confident predictions in public--“I think there's a pretty good chance that by the time Barack Obama walks out on the stage tonight, we'll walk out as Democratic nominee as president of the United States,” said Obama communications director Robert Gibbs this morning on CNN--we'll track the Illinois senator's progress* as he approaches 2,118.

NB: Obama is projected to win 9 delegates in Montana tonight and 8 in South Dakota--meaning that, at this point, the number of superdelegates endorsements he still needs to put him in position to claim the crown is: 0. Obama will likely clinch the nomination as soon as the polls close.

7:54 p.m.: Oklahoma DNC member Ivan Holmes; seven to go.

6:27 p.m.: Maryland DNC member Belkis (Bel) Leong-Hong; eight to go

6:12 p.m.: U.S. Rep. Dennis Moore of Kansas; nine to go

5:38 p.m.: U.S. Rep. Maxine Waters of California; Delaware DNC members Harriet Windsor, John Daniello and Rhett Ruggerio; 10 to go

5:33 p.m.: Florida DNC member Diane Glaser; 14 to go 

5:16 p.m.: California DNC member Kamil Hasan; 15 to go

5:11 p.m.: Ten former Edwards delegates; 16 to go

4:55 p.m.: Florida Sen. Bob Graham; 26 to go

4:43 p.m.: Michigan DNC member Tina Abbott; 27 to go

4:36 p.m.: Mississippi DNC member Carnelia Fondren; 28 to go

3:10 p.m.: Former president and national DNC member Jimmy Carter; 29 to go 

2:48 p.m.: Massachusettes DNC member Deb Kozikowski; 30 to go

2:15 p.m.: Detroit mayor and Michigan DNC member Kwame Kilpatrick; 30.5 to go

1:54 p.m.: The AP calls the race according to its own count. Unfortunately, the AP tally adds "more than a dozen private commitments" to the pot, which, as Ben Smith notes, is "not how this has been working." Writes Smith: "The commitments that matter are the ones that are public. So the story is trivial: I think you could probably get virtually all of the superdelegates at this point to privately acknowledge that they'll vote for Obama at the convention." We agree, and will keep on keeping track of public endorsements until Obama hits the magic number.

1:42 p.m.: Ohio state representative and DNC member Joyce Beatty and Maine DNC member Jennifer Dechant; 31.5 to go

12:57 p.m.: U.S. Rep. John Spratt of South Carolina, New York DNC member Ralph Dawson, South Carolina DNC member Tim Moore (a former Edwards delegate); 33.5 to go

12:16 p.m.: Michigan DNC members Debbie Dingell and Rick Wiener; 35.5 to go

12:00 p.m.: U.S. Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick of Michigan; 36.5 to go*

11:43 a.m.:  U.S. Rep. John W. Olver of Massachusetts; 39 to go

7:55 a.m.: Missouri state representative and DNC member Maria Chappelle-Nadal; 40 to go

6:58 a.m.: Michigan DNC member Joyce Lalonde; 41 to go

*According to the Obama campaign's official tally. 
 

Click through for parts one, two, three and four.

Memo to Democrats: your votes don't count. 

I'm referring, of course, to average, everyday Democrats--the kind who have hair that moves and own but a single American flag tie. If you're the other kind of Democrat--i.e., one of the 795 elected official or party activists known as superdelegates--nevermind. Seeing as there's aren't enough plain old primary delegates left for either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton to reach the magic 2,025 majority--or for Clinton to significantly slash Obama's current 175-delegate lead--yours are the only votes that still matter. At this point, only the superdelegates can prevent forest fires. And pick the Democratic presidential nominee.

This comes as no surprise, I'm sure, to anyone with a functioning nervous system. But it's worth taking a deep breath from time to time and checking in on these all-powerful party poobahs. Hence the Stumper's time-honored Superdelegate Watch.

So where does the superslugfest stand? Mere moments from a TKO--in Barack Obama's favor. On Feb. 5 (a.k.a. Super Tuesday) Clinton was clobbering Obama by 90 superdelegates, 260-170. But by Feb. 28--after 11 straight Obama wins--Obama had picked up 34 and Clinton had lost 6, narrowing the gap to a mere 50. Despite Rev. Wright, Bittergate and the nagging questions about his blue-collar appeal, a steady trickle meant the Illinois senator won a full 80 percent of superdel commitments in February, March and April, and finally overtook his rival on Friday. Overall, between Super Tuesday and this morning, Obama has netted a convincing 114 superdelegates to her 16.5, and now leads 281 to 276.5 in the super sweepstakes. Can you say comeback?

That said, the most striking stat--and the one that makes it painfully clear how improbable a Clinton coronation has become--is Obama's current Rate of Commitment (or ROC, because acronyms make everything sound more official, even if they exist only in my mind). Since the commentariat crowned Obama "the nominee" last Tuesday--prematurely, but not without reason--he's picked up a staggering 29 superdels. (For comparison's sake, that tops his total take from March 6 [after Ohio and Texas] to April 23 [after Pennsylvania].) The problem for Clinton? Right now, Obama has 1878 total delegates; she lags with 1699.5. If Obama keeps snagging supers at an ROC of 29 per week, he'll hit at least 1965 by the end of primary season--meaning that he'll only need to win 60 (or 28 percent) of the remaining primary delegates from West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana to reach a 2,025 majority and clinch the nomination before June 3. If Obama exceeds 28-percent support in the final primaries--a safe bet, considering he's the favorite in Oregon, Montana and South Dakota--the magic moment will likely arrive in May.

As the final hour approaches, then, expect Clinton's rallying cry of 2,209--the revised delegate majority if Florida and Michigan are included in the equation--to increase in volume and intensity. But as we wrote last week, the senator from New York would actually be further from clinching the nomination after those rogue states are factored in and the bar for winning is raised--an inconvenient truth, seeing as nothing that happens between now and June 3 will reverse the flow of superdelegates to Obama. Asked this morning whether Clinton should quit, former Colorado Governor and DNC Chairman Roy Romer--one of four Obama superdelegates to announce so far today--told reporters that "the math is controlling." "This race, I believe, is over," he said. "The more information she has about where superdelegates are, I think it will help her in that decision."

In other words, Obama's superdel trickle has finally become a flood--and Clinton is about to get swept away.

P.S. Yes, the title is a reference to "Unwritten" by Natasha Bedingfield. And yes, Stumper watches The Hills. But only because, like, Girlfriend of Stumper is really into it.
 

Click through for parts one and two.

Remember the secret stash of 50 superdelegates that Barack Obama was supposed to roll out after his March 4 losses to Hillary Clinton in Texas and Ohio?

Um, nevermind.

On Tuesday morning, NBC News anchor emeritus Tom Brokaw informed Joe Scarborough--and baffled Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe--that the Obama camp had "50 [pro-Obama superdelegates] that they've identified who are ready to go public before too long," according to "sources close" to the campaign. Obamaniacs were understandably thrilled. As I wrote at the time, a supers surprise would serve as the perfect page-turner, win or lose--either Obama breaks the wave of Clinton's comeback stories or makes her math that much more miserable.

The only problem? There's no surprise in store, according to the Obama campaign. "This is just a rumor," says Obama spokesman Bill Burton today. "There is no secret stash of superdelegates that we are sitting on waiting to roll out." Maybe the stockpile splintered after Tuesday's losses; maybe Team Obama wants to release its names as a steady drip rather than a sudden flood; or maybe the whole story was a sham. Either way, no game-changers this week.

If you're one of the poor saps who bought Brokaw's story--like me--don't fret. So did Rep. Lacy Clay, Obama’s Missouri co-chairman and pledged Obama superdelegate himself. Clay told the Columbia Missourian yesterday that the 50 superdelegates would come out of the closet "later this week"--and then took the stats one step further, claiming that "the campaign is Obama’s." “[Sen. Clinton] will not make up those numbers,” Clay said. “This race is over.” Which wouldn't have been true in any case--an additional 200 or so superdelegates would've still remained uncommitted, and Clinton and Obama would've been roughly tied among these party leaders. But it's even less true today.

Now that Clinton's death-defying wins in Texas and Ohio have prolonged the contest and slowed Obama's momentum among party poobahs, there's a bigger story to watch: an increasing willingness among superdelegates to band together and seek concessions from the presidential candidates in return for votes at the convention. Last night, the Politico reported that bloc of uncommitted Ohio supers--perhaps including Reps. March Kaptur, Dennis Kucinich, Tim Ryan, Zack Space, Betty Sutton and Charlie Wilson, and Sen. Sherrod Brown--is "withholding endorsements from Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton until one or the other offers a concrete proposal to protect American jobs," according to two state Democrats.

At this point, everyone knows that Obama and Clinton need superdelegate support to put them over the top--the superdelegates included. With the contest now likely to continue until the convention, I suspect it won't be long before others start making similar demands.

Ah, democracy in action.

UPDATE, 11:51 p.m.: Searching my inbox, I noticed that the Obama campaign has announced seven superdelegate pickups since March 4. So there might be something to my "steady drip" theory. With seven weeks until Pennsylvania, a constant stream of superdelegate endorsements is a good way to create the impression of momentum--whether or not the supers in question decided to endorse today, yesterday or last month. Conversely, a sudden flood this week might've struck observers as a show of pre-March 4 support--and left them wondering whether Obama could keep attracting superdelegates after Clinton's wins in Ohio and Texas. Now it *looks like* he is.

Don't let us hyperventilating media types distract you. We may prattle on about the latest spreads in Texas (Obama's up by two) and Ohio (Clinton's up by five), but it doesn't matter all that much, at this point, who wins those primaries--or the contests in Mississippi (probably Obama), Wyoming (Obama again), North Carolina (still Obama) and Pennsylvania (perhaps Clinton) that follow. This is a race for delegates, not states. And because Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally, there's simply no way for either candidate to reach the magic 2,025 majority--or for Clinton to significantly slash Obama's current 100-plus earned delegate lead--before the end of primary season on June 7.

In other words, only the party's 795 superdelegates can pick a winner--no matter what happens next week and beyond.

Of course, you've probably heard all of this before. But with the MSM barking away about this poll and that attack, it's important every once in a while to pause, breathe and take a cold, hard look at where the contest actually stands.

Over the past 20 days, Obama has quietly gained what could become decisive momentum in the all-important race for superdelegates--and may have even reached his tipping point. Here's the math. With 1,382 delegates (earned and super-) to his name, Obama still needs 643 to win the nomination. Let's assume that over the next three months he picks up 490, or half, of the remaining primary and caucus delegates--a conservative estimate, considering that most of the states in question (Mississippi, North Carolina, Wyoming, Oregon, Montana, etc.) favor him from the outset. That gets the Illinois senator to 1,872--or 153 shy of 2,025.

Which is where the remaining 359 uncommitted superdelegates come in. According to the AP, Clinton still leads 241 to 195 in the "committed" count. But Obama is gaining fast. Since Super Tuesday, he's snagged a net total of 43 supers (including four today); she's lost two. The trend is unmistakable. Seeing as Clinton can't catch up in the earned delegate count unless she wins by 20 or 30 points in every remaining contest, her best bet is to trounce Obama in both Texas and Ohio and hope that the "comeback" narrative convinces supers to stay uncommitted until after Pennsylvania on April 22. But if Tuesday ends with a split-decision or an Obama twofer, I can't imagine that gaggle of pols suddenly deciding, en masse, to give Clinton yet another chance. So the slow bleed will continue. At the current rate of two pickups a day, Obama would hit 153 in mid-May, effectively clinching the nod. And a convincing performance next week would only quicken the pace.

Paging Florida and Michigan...

From the AP: The Democratic superdelegates are starting to follow the voters — straight to Barack Obama. In just the past two weeks, more than two dozen of them have climbed aboard his presidential campaign, according to a survey by The Associated Press. At the same time, Hillary Rodham Clinton's are beginning to jump ship, abandoning her for Obama or deciding they now are undecided. The result: He's narrowing her once-commanding lead among these "superdelegates," the Democratic office holders and party officials who automatically attend the national convention and can vote for whomever they choose... Clinton still leads among superdelegates — 241 to 181, according to the AP survey. But her total is down two in the past two weeks, while his is up 25. Since the primaries started, at least three Clinton superdelegates have switched to Obama, including Rep. David Scott of Georgia, who changed his endorsement after Obama won 80 percent of the primary vote in Scott's district. At least two other Clinton backers have switched to undecided. None of Obama's have publicly strayed, according to the AP tally.

What did we tell you about the "Ides of March"? 

From Stumper, Feb. 13: Depending how March 4 shakes out, [the Potomac Primary] results--and the likely Obama wins in Wisconsin and Hawaii--may help determine the Democratic nominee by the ides of March. If Obama takes Ohio and Texas, I'm guessing that the decisive superdelegates will soon break his way and pressure will mount on Clinton to withdraw. If Clinton wins both, the race will continue through Pennsylvania on April 22. But if the result is muddled with a win apiece and/or a delegate draw--by far the likeliest result--Obama will have the upper hand. He'll probably lead in the popular vote (current margin: 700,000). He'll almost certainly lead in pledged-delegate count. (Now trailing by more than 130, Clinton needs to win 345 of the 573 delegates up for grabs between March 4 and April 22 to catch up). He'll have shown some serious crossover appeal (read: electability). And with 40 days between Mississippi on March 11 and the Keystone State on April 22, the superdelegates will have plenty of time to decide whether they want to prolong the contest or crown a presumptive nominee for the good of the party.