HANOVER, N.H. -- I am here in the student union at Dartmouth waiting to see if Hillary Clinton has chance to smother this Democratic presidential race before it begins. I just came from a dinner with a top strategist from a major campaign (not Hillary's) who put her chances if of winning the nomination at 8-out-of-10. And yet, having been through this drill more times than I can count, I find it hard to believe that this race will end before it really has begun. Somebody is going to challenge Clinton for real. The physics of politics and media make it inevitable. The question is whether the main challenger is Sen. Barack Obama or, as seems increasingly possible, somebody else.

   Right now the Democratic and Republican parties have changed personas. The Democrats usually tear each other limb from limb; the GOP generally has an orderly coronation. Right now, Hillary is approaching the throne all but unscathed; the Republicans have only begun to go after each other in earnest. The GOP has no ideological unity; the Democrats have a lot.

Welcome to the Taco Bell primary.

A few years ago, the storied purveyor of such authentic Mexican delicacies as Cheesy Beefy Melt and Nachos BellGrande launched an ad campaign based on three simple words: "Change is Good." At the time the slogan struck me as both sub-literate, like something from a self-help book for cavemen, and unreasonably optimistic--the changes in Michael Jackson's face, for example, have not been so good. But now four of the leading 2008 presidential contenders are making essentially the same argument to convince us to vote for them. What's good enough for chalupas, it seems, is good enough for Mitt Romney.

The Change Wars began on Sept. 5, when both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton launched ads called, conveniently enough, "Change." Obama's was business as usual--as the new kid in town, he'd built his entire campaign around hope and the audacity thereof. But Clinton's was widely seen as strategic shift meant to neutralize Obama's appeal to "change" voters. Her new slogan: "Ready for Change, Ready to Lead." Obama, Clinton was arguing, may talk about change, but he isn't "ready" to make it happen. And in case you missed the point, Clinton has spent the three weeks since then repeating a single catchphrase -- "'Change' is just a word without the strength and experience to make it happen"--over and over again. And then over again.

What a tease. Last night, Hillary Clinton spent the first hour of her New York fundraiser running through her usual talking points before revealing that she had a surprise for the 1,200 assembled supporters, who surely paid at least $50 a head for more than the usual litany. "I have a great privilege," she said, smiling and slipping into the mode of girlish flirtation that she deploys occasionally on the trail, most famously in March when she thanked a firefighters' convention them for their warm welcome and then—raising an eyebrow—said, "and thanks for last night, too." Her surprise guest, Clinton continued, is "someone whom I'm incredibly fond of, who I admire enormously, who is a man of great distinction and honor who has served our country well for so many years..." Here, people nudged their neighbors and, mouthing the word "Bill," began to applaud. "...Whom I'm very proud has endorsed me for president..."—big laughs, because, you know, what else are husbands for?—"who is here, and I want to invite him out join us for this conversation." A collective gasp. "General Wesley Clark." Well, at least it was a silver-haired Arkansan.

The night's most entertaining moment came when Clinton compared Dick Cheney to the Dark Lord of the Sith. "Vice President Cheney came up to see the Republicans yesterday. You can always tell when the Republicans are getting restless, because the Vice President’s motorcade pulls into the Capitol, and Darth Vader emerges," she said. Oh snap.

But a later moment was more characteristic. "This is question from a New York City schoolteacher," said former Iowa Governor and current Clinton national campaign chair Tom Vilsack, who served as Clinton's interviewer. "What can you do about the growing and aging school systems, not just in New York, the city, but across the country?"

"You mean like, the buildings and the facilities and everything?" Clinton replied, excitement in her voice.

"I would broaden it a bit to talk about what you think needs to be done in education in general," said Vilsack, who is, by all accounts, a better natural campaigner than Clinton. 

Sorry, Tom--she wasn't having it. "You know, I'll start directly with her question about school facilities," she said, launching into a long disquisition on schools with "coal-fired boilers," "mold" and "ceiling tiles falling" and proposing a "fund that can be used to help local districts...get long-term loans to build and renovate and modernize facilities." Give Clinton a choice between barnstorming and wonking, and she'll wonk every time.

Where's Bill when you need him?

Is it any coincidence that Rudy Giuliani has announced not one, but two Hollywood endorsements in the last 24 hours? As Fred Thompson prepares to kick-off his campaign tour today in Iowa, Camp Rudy says the former New York City mayor has picked up support from actors Robert Duvall and Ron Silver. Now we aren’t going to rag on Duvall one bit. He’s an Academy Award winner, starred in"The Godfather " I and II--two of your Gaggler’s favorite films (and Rudy’s too, we hear)--and even looks a little bit like Giuliani, we must say. Ron Silver, Rudy’s other Hollywood get, is, well, eh--unless you think"Oh God! You Devil!" was an unappreciated gem of 1980s comedy gold, and in that case, our bad.

The news here is that Rudy, in a very politics-isn’t-much-different-from-high-school way, is talking up endorsements from two guys who have worked with Hollywood Fred--though there’s no mention of this in the campaign’s press releases, of course. Duvall starred with Thompson in “Days of Thunder,” while Silver lists several episodes of “Law & Order” to his credit. It’s almost certain that Duvall or Silver, should they hit the cable TV shows in support of their man Rudy, will surely be asked about Thompson’s acting (and political) abilities. What will they say? Who knows, but it’s likely only a matter of time before Rudy’s campaign touts the checks they’ve gotten from other Hollywood notables, like Kelsey Grammar and Adam Sandler. Of course, that’s nothing compared to Sam Brownback’s recent Hollywood get: an endorsement from Stephen Baldwin, Alec’s brother and star of “Bio-Dome.” How will Thompson ever top that? Two words: Pauly Shore.