Over at the Plum Line, Greg Sargent notes something I've been thinking, and meaning to blog about for weeks, namely that the Virginia governor's race is not a referendum on the president. As much as pundits want to draw national conclusions for an off-cycle race like this one—political reporters, myself included, can't resist the allure of "what does it all mean?" analysis—the Virginia race doesn't tell us all that much about the presidency. Sargent looks closely at the numbers from a recent Washington Post poll, and finds the following:
- Seventy percent of likely voters say Obama is “not a
factor” in their choice. Only 15% say opposition to Obama is a factor,
while 14% say support for him is a factor.
- Seventy-one percent say it makes “no difference” if the
governor is from the same political party as the president. More people
say it’s good to have a governor from the same party, 16%-13%.
- Obama’s approval rating in Virginia is 54%, in line with many national polls.
Those numbers pretty clearly illustrate that Virginians have a pretty healthy separation between their state and federal preferences. But they don't even get to the obvious: Obama and Creigh Deeds couldn't be more different. Obama's strongest appeal is to liberals, while Deeds is decidedly closer to the center—he's either a moderate or a conservative Democrat depending on whom you talk to. Obama excited an entirely different group of Virginians than Deeds does—including black and Hispanic voters—and his impressive ground team got those people to the polls. Deeds, as has been well reported, hasn't been embracing the advice offered to him by Obama's folks, nor does his field operation come close to approximating the breadth and enthusiasm of Obama's. And let's not even get into the stylistic differences between earthy Deeds and the powerfully eloquent president.
Certainly the Virginia race gives us some generalized notion of the mood of the country, and whether Obama's appeal can continue to carry fellow Democrats in tricky districts. But Obama isn't on the ballot, and Deeds is no cookie-cutter Democrat. He's a hunting, fishing, pro-gun guy from the country, with a Southern accent to match. His performance can't simply be transferred onto other races. Not to mention that, as in most off-cycle races, local issues—which are usually highly idiosyncratic—play a decisive role. In this case, it's Virginia's messy transportation issues.
That's not to say the race isn't interesting, or that there aren't some lessons here about the length of Obama's coattails. But no doubt if Deeds loses next week (an outcome his polling certainly points to) we'll be hearing triumphant talk about a GOP comeback and the ascendancy of conservative ideas. Then will come the Democrats' gnashing of teeth about presidential overreach and the damage Obama is inflicting on Democrats in conservative districts. And when that happens we should all take a deep breath and remember that Deeds is not Obama, and Virginia is Virginia. Let's keep the lessons in perspective.
