Last week I wrote that gay marriage is a generational issue. I argued that over time, as generations shift, opposition to gay marriage will become a thing of the past, an anachronistic viewpoint that will one day be as dated as Don Draper's marriage. Today I noticed this handy illustration which bolsters my point (from Lisa Wade, via Matt Yglesias):

Marriage-equality proponents are staring blankly into their coffee mugs today, wondering just what went wrong in Maine. It was supposed to be the place that proved the national tide is turning on gay rights. Yet voters endorsed a proposal to overturn an existing gay-marriage sanction. It's certainly a setback for the movement, but it's not the end. Not even close.

I tend to think of gay rights as a generational issue. Nate Silver, the FiveThirtyEight blogger who builds extraordinarily insightful electoral models, finds that support for banning gay marriage is eroding at a pace of 2 percentage points each year. Young people tend to be more supportive, and over time, I think that view will prevail. In years to come, opposition to gay rights will be as outdated a mindset as denying women the vote seems today.  The train is moving in one direction, and, like many movements before it, young people are driving.

By Jesse Ellison

Yesterday, Mainers turned out in unexpectedly high numbers to vote yes on 1, which actually meant voting no on gay marriage. Voting yes to say no wasn't the only thing that happened that might confound those watching from out of state. Despite making a socially conservative choice on gay marriage, voters made the fairly liberal decision not to limit state government spending, and an almost radical move to expand and regulate the distribution of medical marijuana. Together, it doesn't seem to make much sense.

So what happened? Opponents of same-sex marriage waged essentially the same campaign run last year in California, with endless television ads claiming that not repealing gay marriage, which Democratic Gov. John Baldacci had signed into law in May, would mean that it would be taught in school. One of them showed a forlorn-looking couple from Massachusetts claiming that since their state had legalized same-sex marriage, "our son came home and told us the school taught him that boys can marry other boys.  He's in second grade." In another, a Maine teacher implored voters to "vote yes on Question 1 to prevent homosexual marriage from being taught in Maine schools." The state attorney general publicly disputed the claims, but there's no question that they were effective.

Unlike the New York City Mayoral, or the Virginia Governor's race, there is a really bad sign for Democrats out of the East Coast. Via The Times, Republicans made inroads in New York's suburbs. "In Westchester County, where Democrats have a solid advantage in voter registration, a Republican challenger, Rob Astorino, upset the incumbent Democratic County Executive, Andrew Spano, who was seeking his fourth term.... In Nassau County, Republicans recaptured the county legislature, and have come close to unseating the Democratic County Executive, Thomas R. Suozzi, in a race that remained too close to call on Wednesday morning."

Why does this matter so much? Because the New York suburbs epitomize the new Blue America.

Maine should have been an example of strength in numbers for gay marriage proponents, but instead turned into heartache. If you don't count D.C., according to Gary Gates of the Williams Institute, a think tank at UCLA's school of law devoted to gay-rights policies, Maine "has the highest number of same-sex couples per 1000 households (so the highest per capita) of any state." So what happened?

With gains on the national front, such as gay marriages being officially counted (with figures released) for the first time in the 2010 census  and the recent passage of hate crimes legislation that includes protection for gays, the movement is seeing more momentum in the past half year than it has in decades.

Maine should have been part of that momentum. The state is known for its moderate, independent electorate, and gay right activists had mounted a sophisticated media campaign in support of same-sex marriage. But movement on the national stage, it seems, is not translating into progress on the state level.

While gay-rights activists mourn their loss in Maine, they should not discount the projected victory of Referendum 71 in Washington state. If the measure passes, the Evergreen State will be the first to approve gay equality by direct will of the people, rather than the court or legislature.

Nicknamed "Everything But Marriage," Referendum 71 asked voters to reconfirm the state legislature's recent expansion of domestic partnership rights, signed by Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire this past spring. Granted, the bill does not protect gay marriage. But it would recognize the rights of domestic partners "to be equivalent to those of married spouses." There's a week's worth of ballot-counting remaining—Washington is one of two vote-by-mail states—but returns so far look good for gay-rights activists.

The Atlantic’s Chris Good has an interesting breakdown on who spent what on New York’s hotly contested 23rd congressional district race. The big news: the Club for Growth spent more than $1 million in support of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. That’s slightly less than the $1.1 million the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chipped in behalf of Democrat Bill Owens. Meanwhile, the National Republican Congressional Committee spent roughly $897,000—mostly on ads directly challenging Owens, as opposed to building up Dede Scozzafava, a moderate Republican who dropped out of the race over the weekend.

With polls set to close around 9 p.m. ET, the big question is whether the Club for Growth’s money and support—along with high-profile endorsements from 2012 hopefuls Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty—was enough to push Hoffmann over the edge. ***UPDATE: We now know it wasn't.** But in Washington, many Republicans are already looking at the bigger picture of what a Hoffman victory might mean for other closely contested GOP races next year. It’s not just about a philosophical war between moderates and conservatives over how the party should move forward. It’s about money and manpower at a time when the NRCC is trying to cut into the Democrats’ majority control of the House. Will independent groups like the Club for Growth try to repeat their methods in other tight GOP contests next year and what does that mean for the NRCC’s own operation, particularly in terms of money? Cash is already tight for House Republicans, who are being outspent and outraised by their Democratic counterparts. The last thing GOP aides say the party needs is an internecine war when Republicans should be focusing their resources in fighting Democrats.

Voting in Pepper Pike, Ohio on Tuesday. Photo by Amy Sancetta/AP

It's Election Day, and although none of the contests has a real national impact, political strategists will be analyzing every minute detail for clues on national trends. As the results come trickling in, here are five things to watch for.

1. In Virginia, things look pretty dour for Creigh Deeds. Although Obama won the state last year, Deeds has few of the traits that excited Democrats to vote for Obama in droves. But Republicans will quickly celebrate a poor showing by Deeds as proof that the president's star power is waning. Watch for the White House to subtly distance itself from the Deeds campaign, likely in the form of blind quotes on Politico or in tomorrow's Washington Post.

Over at the Plum Line, Greg Sargent notes something I've been thinking, and meaning to blog about for weeks, namely that the Virginia governor's race is not a referendum on the president. As much as pundits want to draw national conclusions for an off-cycle race like this one—political reporters, myself included, can't resist the allure of "what does it all mean?" analysis—the Virginia race doesn't tell us all that much about the presidency. Sargent looks closely at the numbers from a recent Washington Post poll, and finds the following:

• Seventy percent of likely voters say Obama is “not a factor” in their choice. Only 15% say opposition to Obama is a factor, while 14% say support for him is a factor.
• Seventy-one percent say it makes “no difference” if the governor is from the same political party as the president. More people say it’s good to have a governor from the same party, 16%-13%.
• Obama’s approval rating in Virginia is 54%, in line with many national polls.