Voting in Pepper Pike, Ohio on Tuesday. Photo by Amy Sancetta/AP

It's Election Day, and although none of the contests has a real national impact, political strategists will be analyzing every minute detail for clues on national trends. As the results come trickling in, here are five things to watch for.

1. In Virginia, things look pretty dour for Creigh Deeds. Although Obama won the state last year, Deeds has few of the traits that excited Democrats to vote for Obama in droves. But Republicans will quickly celebrate a poor showing by Deeds as proof that the president's star power is waning. Watch for the White House to subtly distance itself from the Deeds campaign, likely in the form of blind quotes on Politico or in tomorrow's Washington Post.

Over at the Plum Line, Greg Sargent notes something I've been thinking, and meaning to blog about for weeks, namely that the Virginia governor's race is not a referendum on the president. As much as pundits want to draw national conclusions for an off-cycle race like this one—political reporters, myself included, can't resist the allure of "what does it all mean?" analysis—the Virginia race doesn't tell us all that much about the presidency. Sargent looks closely at the numbers from a recent Washington Post poll, and finds the following:

• Seventy percent of likely voters say Obama is “not a factor” in their choice. Only 15% say opposition to Obama is a factor, while 14% say support for him is a factor.
• Seventy-one percent say it makes “no difference” if the governor is from the same political party as the president. More people say it’s good to have a governor from the same party, 16%-13%.
• Obama’s approval rating in Virginia is 54%, in line with many national polls.

Republicans are rubbing their hands in glee—and Democrats wringing theirs—at the struggles of Democratic gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey and Virginia. Both of these governor's seats carry great power and would be impressive coups for the GOP, but from a national level, they're really most important for citizens of New Jersey and Virginia. The race the nation should be watching is a special election in upstate New York. 

On the gubernatorial level, Republican Bob McDonnell looks to have the upper hand in Virginia, while incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine may eke out a win in New Jersey but will only do so after embarrassing 11th-hour revelations about opponent Chris Christie, attacks on Christie's weight, and help from an independent, third-party challenger. But regardless of who wins, these races aren't really referendums on Barack Obama—they're referendums on the corruption-racked Garden State and the economic future of the Old Dominion. The New York race, however, will provide some hints as to whether Democrats can hold on to voters who went for Obama in 2008 and show what path the right wing might choose to regain relevance.