Holly Bailey
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Aug 11, 2007 09:17 PM
Out Front: Romney. Photo: Khue Bui for Newsweek
They didn't have to bring in Katherine Harris, but it almost felt
that way. Results from the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa were delayed more
than an hour, after one of the Diebold machines used to tally the votes
malfunctioned forcing a recount of 1,500 ballots. (Déjà vu, anyone?) No surprise, the big winner was Mitt Romney, who got 4,516 (or 32 percent of the vote).
But the big headline of the night was Mike Huckabee's second place
finish. The former Arkansas governor, who barely ranks on many national
polls, finished with 18 percent of the vote, or 2,587 votes. Romney
finished well ahead, but Huckabee's victory was notable because the
former Arkansas governor spent almost nothing on his get out the vote
efforts. While Romney and rival Sam Brownback (who finished a
disappointing 3rd place, with 15 percent of the vote) each had more
than 100 buses bring in supporters, Huckabee's campaign operated on the
cheap. "No buses... we couldn't afford it," a jubilant Huckabee told
reporters afterwards. "It's David and Goliath and a smooth stone.
That's the only way I can explain it."
How did the frontrunners do? Rudy Giuliani, up in most
national polls, declined to participate in the straw vote, and he got
only 183 votes (1 percent) out of the 14,302 ballots cast. John McCain
got 101 votes, while Fred Thompson got 1.4 percent with 203 votes. It's
hard to say if the poll results will do much in terms of winnowing the
field. Tommy Thompson, who finished in fourth place, has said he would
drop out if he didn't finish in the top three. And all eyes will surely
be on Brownback, who spent a lot of money to attract votes at Ames but
in the end had little to show for it.
Remember all that downplaying the Romney campaign did on the eve of the
vote? Well, on one hand, they were right. The number of overall ballots
cast were down more than half compared to 2000, when George W. Bush
easily won the poll. Yet, just as your Gaggler predicted, that didn't
dampen the Romney camp's excitement, which quickly touted the former
governor's "overwhelming victory." We'll have to wait until October to
find out how much Romney spent per vote cast-ditto for the other
campaigns. But one thing is clear: Romney and Huckabee are almost in
the same boat. Both camps are hoping the Ames result will spark some
momentum heading into fall, especially among voters outside of Iowa
where both have struggled to catch fire. The ballots may be counted,
but the judgment on whether the Ames Straw Poll waned in influence this
year is still out.
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