The GoldDigger is taking a moment to reflect. I spent Sunday watching three films--"Zodiac," "American Gangster" and "Year of the Dog." Two of them were entertaining enough. The third features Molly Shannon talking to dogs. (But to be fair, it's a Mike White movie and an odd meditation on loneliness, sort of a bookend to "Lars and the Real Girl.") All this got me thinking about best picture, a race in which everyone is throwing their hands up in the air about this year.

Except, not really.

There are two locks so far. "Atonement" and "No Country for Old Men," which opened to an impressive $42,928 per screen average ($1.2 million) this weekend. If nothing else remarkable comes along, it could be a rematch of 1999 when "Shakespeare in Love" fought off "Saving Private Ryan." This year, I think the edge is in the Coen brother's corner. "No Country" is violent, yes, but not in a way that will alienate female voters. It's as adrenaline packed as last year's winner, "The Departed," with a more literary back story.

That leaves three slots. If you believe the buzz, "American Gangster" is almost a lock. It's the movie that both critics and audiences seem to love--with a 10-day box office tally of (whoa) $80 million. But I dunno. I think it might be on everyone's radar now, as a placeholder for better things to come. I saw it 24 hours ago and it's already fading from memory--especially the sappy third act where (spoiler! spoiler!) Denzel and Russell become BFFs after Denzel apologizes for stealing Russell's Oscar for "A Beautiful Mind."

I think "Juno" will sneak in there. It's this year's "Little Miss Sunshine," the kind of movie that leaves you smitten like a teenager.

And the last two movies are ... really up in the air. The wild cards are "Charlie Wilson's War" and "Sweeney Todd." If "Sweeney" is a hit and it's better than "Hairspray," I think it has a shot. If not, then maybe "Gangster," after all.

The last spot will be a toss up between: "There Will Be Blood" (which I haven't seen yet, because Paramount Vantage is being weird with screenings), "Michael Clayton" (which is fading), "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (the underdog) and "The Kite Runner." I don't think "Into the Wild," "Gone Baby Gone" or "3:10 to Yuma" have a chance at best picture. Neither does "Zodiac," though I thought it was wonderfully creepy.