"Charlie Wilson's War" is one of the most hyped Oscar movies of the year. It stars Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts! It was written by Aaron Sorkin!!! It was directed by Mike Nichols!!!!!!

I went to the first public screening last night, and I can now put the exclamation key on my keyboard to rest. "Charlie Wilson's War" is the perfect example of why you can't handicap the Oscars race based on a film no one has seen.

I love Mike Nichols. I thought "Closer" was the best movie of 2004, though it wasn't nominated for best picture because the Academy found it too dark. "Charlie Wilson's War" is definitely more upbeat, more heartwarming and mushy and gooey and--it's still not going to get nominated for best picture. The truth is, this true story about a congressman from Texas who saves Afghanistan from a Soviet invasion just isn't that good. You've got a four-star cast trapped in the body of a two-star script.

Sorkin paces the whole thing like a long episode of "The West Wing" dipped in "Studio 60 on the Afghanistan Strip." The scenes in Washington are kind of quippy and fun, but when the movie goes overseas, it loses its momentum. It doesn't help that the people of Afghanistan are treated like extras from Borat.

As Charlie Wilson, Hanks mostly succeeds, but not so much that he will get nominated for best actor. Julia Roberts has big eyelashes, big hair and a big Texas accent, but she never wears any of it comfortably. She's also such a huge star, that--I'm sorry, Julia--she can't be contained in a supporting role. You need an entire movie to wrap around her. She's out of the running, too.  

The audience at the screening I attended loved Philip Seymour Hoffman. He's had the Best. Year. Ever. But I think he'll probably get nominated for his supporting role in "The Savages." Amy Adams, as Hanks's assistant, is the only member of the cast who resembles a real human being. 

Update: Philip Seymour Hoffman is actually lead for "The Savages," as well as "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead." Oh no. He's going to split his vote.

The best actress race is a real cat fight this year, and the claws came out yesterday. David Poland of Movie City News reported that Cate Blanchett was actually being campaigned for best actress, not supporting, for "I'm Not There." By the end of the day, she was back in the supporting category (wise move, studio). But that doesn't help us much.

There are always a flood of actors competing. But this year, there are also a record number of women who could slip into the top five. Let's take a look:

We've got the neurotic writers. Nicole Kidman in "Margot at the Wedding" and Laura Linney, who gives the most brilliant performance of her career in "The Savages."

We've got the struggling artist, Marion Cotillard in "La Vie En Rose."

The princess (Amy Adams in "Enchanted") and the queen (Cate Blanchett in "Elizabeth II").

The wise-cracking teen, a female version of Holden Caufield, played by Ellen Page in "Juno."

The veteran, Julie Christie for her performance in "Away From Her."

Keira Knightley should be swept in with "Atonement," don't you think?

And the most famous face of all, Angelina Jolie, who was unfairly ignored by audiences for her best performance yet in "A Mighty Heart."

Nine names, four will fall out. If I was predicting today, here's who I think would make the cut, in no particular order: (1) Laura Linney, (2) Julie Christie, (3) Keira Knightley, (4) Marion Cotillard, (5) Amy Adams