Really. We're about the enter the first big phase of Oscar season. It's December, and "Atonement" opens in limited release on Friday. It's the Hillary Clinton of the race. Everyone expects it to win, but will it? Like Ms. Clinton, the movie has had the clever strategy of laying low, allowing Barack Obama--I mean "No Country for Old Men"--to gain momentum and (they hope) peak early. Now it's finally time for "Atonement" to come out fighting like the champion it is. Will it succeed? The festivities began today, with a press lunch at the National Arts Club in New York. 

Inside, I spoke to Tim Bevan, the film's producer, who acknowledged the hush campaign for "Atonement." "It's always difficult when you have a film that people see so early," he said. "It's about keeping the lid on expectations." Bevan has seen "No Country," and he's a fan--after all, he did produce "Fargo"--though he went on to predict that the Coens's ambiguous ending will cost them best picture. "That ending is f--ing weird, isn't it," he said. "You want to see Josh Brolin get it." And with that gentle dig, ladies and gentleman, we've got a real campaign.