I interviewed Heath Ledger last spring, a few days after the Oscars, and he was upbeat and charming. This is what he had to say about "I'm Not There," unpublished until now: "Cate Blanchett is Dylan. She's phenomenal. She's going to blow people's doors up. I can't say enough about the whole experience. Todd Haynes is a wonderful man. He's a genius with an incredible vision. I am fairly confident he's pulled it off from the dailies. It really looked like Fellini back from the dead."

He had just come from the Spirit Awards. "I was escorting Michelle," he said. "She was nominated for 'Land of Plenty.'" Did he go to the Oscars, too? "We stayed home and we caught the last three announcements. Missed most of it. We mainly watched to see Ellen. I thought she was fantastic."

Well, by now, you know them already. Here's the complete list.

The biggest surprise--other than the fact that none of my big predictions came true, so I can thank the Academy for making me look like a dummy--is the inclusion of Jason Reitman as best director for "Juno." He's not going to win. But it shows that the Academy loves his movie, and it's in the fight with "No Country For Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" to take home best picture.

This has been a very difficult year to predict the Oscars, and not just because there might not be an Oscars night. Three months ago, the frontrunners for best picture were "Atonement," "Sweeney Todd," "Charlie Wilson's War" and "American Gangster." Now it's unlikely that even one of those films will be nominated. If "Atonement"  doesn't make the final cut, it'll mark a dramatic shift for the Academy, which has traditionally honored more safe, sentimental stories over experimental ones ("There Will Be Blood"). Or maybe we're in for some more surprises yet. Here's what I think we'll see when the Oscars nominees are announced Tuesday morning:

(1) "Atonement" will get snubbed for best picture. If someone wrote that sentence last November, we'd all think he was nuts. But this year's Oscar frontrunner has been shut out of being nominated for any of the major guild awards, and the guilds largely make up the academy. If "Atonement" does slip in, it will only be because enough voters ranked it as their No. 1 movie of the year. (The Oscar ballots are counted through a complicated preferential system of voting.) But that doesn't seem likely. Although "Atonement" won the Globe and swept the Bafta nominations, it just doesn't seem to be connecting with American viewers in the same way.

So what's in? "No Country for Old Men" is a lock. "Juno" is the quirky underdog that everyone loves, and the biggest box office hit in the running (unless you count "American Gangster," which I don't). "Michael Clayton" is the kind of adult thriller Hollywood eats up. "There Will Be Blood" is being called a modern day classic. And "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" is the emotional favorite and should get enough No. 1 votes to make the cut. I want to include "Into the Wild" on that list too, but there isn't room. So it will likely just fall short of the nomination.

(2) Johnny Depp won't get nominated either. The lead actor category is incredibly competitive this year. Daniel Day-Lewis is the frontrunner for "There Will be Blood," and George Clooney is in for "Michael Clayton." The rest is up in the air. The Academy likes to mix up this category with a couple new faces each year, so two of the following will make the cut: Viggo Mortensen for "Eastern Promises," James McAvoy for "Atonement," Emile Hirsch for "Into the Wild" and Ryan Gosling for "Lars and the Real Girl" (he's been nominated before, but he's still young enough to be considered a newcomer). The last spot is a battle between the veterans Depp in "Sweeney Todd" and Denzel Washington in "American Gangster." My rule when it comes to the Oscars is don't bet against Denzel. Final five: Day-Lewis, Clooney, Mortensen, Gosling and Washington.

(3) Amy Adams will sneak into the best actress category for "Enchanted." Before we get to her, let's look at the other nominees. Three are shoe ins: Julie Christie for "Away from Her," Marion Cotillard for "La Vie En Rose" and Ellen Page for "Juno." The fourth slot will likely go to Angelina Jolie for "A Mighty Heart." Keira Knightley will probably be shut out for "Atonement." Laura Linney is brilliant in "The Savages" but the performance was largely ignored. Which is why Adams will round out the category for her crowd pleasing turn as a princess. Plus, Hollywood has already crowned her as its next princess--she's backing four movies next year.

(4) Jennifer Garner is the bellwether nominee. If she lands a supporting nod for "Juno," then maybe the movie does have what it takes to win everything. After all, it's hard to love the movie and not admire her work as the emotional center of the film, though she hasn't been recognized for anything until now. Final five for best supporting actress: Amy Ryan for "Gone Baby Gone," Cate Blanchett for "I'm Not There," Tilda Swinton for "Michael Clayton," Saoirse Ronan for "Atonement" and Garner.

Other predictions:

Best supporting actor: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men," Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War," Hal Halbrook, "Into the Wild," Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton," and Casey Affleck for "The Assassination of Jesse James."

Best director: the Coen brothers, "No Country For Old Men," Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly," Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood," Sean Penn, "Into the Wild" and Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton."

Best original screenplay: "Juno," "Michael Clayton," "Lars and the Real Girl," "The Savages" and "Knocked Up."

Best adapted screenplay: "No Country for Old Men," "There Will Be Blood," "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly," "Into the Wild" and "Atonement."

Best animated film: "Ratatouille," "The Simpsons Movie" and "Persepolis."

This is a very odd awards season to start an Oscars blog, because there are no awards to blog about. Oh, OK--there are some, handed out by the critics at small ceremonies. But most of them aren't televised. The Golden Globes, for all their randomness and ridiculousness, were at least a chance for us to see how well the winners handled themselves at the podium. Yes, Oscar voters want to hear heartfelt, crazy, zany, silly acceptances--how else do you except Roberto Benigni's win for "Life is Beautiful"? This year, no race is shaping up to be closer than best actress. The frontrunner is Julie Christie, who won the Globe for best dramatic actress. If she had been there, she probably would've given a very humble speech, a la Helen Mirren in "The Queen." The best performance of the bunch is Marion Cotillard, who won the Globe for best musical/comedy performance. I think her speech would've probably been better, plus she would've shown everyone that she can speak English (the performance is French), giving her a little boost with voters. Now let's see who the SAG honors next weekend. Complete curveball prediction: Ellen Page wins, throwing the race wide open. 

As you may have heard, there are no Golden Globes this year. But that won't stop me from predicting the winners. Here are the names you'll hear at what's sure to be a spectacularly cheesy press conference Sunday night:

Best Motion Picture, Drama: "No Country For Old Men"

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy: "Sweeney Todd"

Best Director: Joel and Ethan Coen, "No Country For Old Men"

Best Actor in a Drama: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"

Best Actress in a Drama: Julie Christie, "Away From Her"

Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy: Johnny Depp, "Sweeney Todd"

Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy: Marion Cotillard, "La Vie En Rose"

Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, "No Country For Old Men"

Best Supporting Actress: Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement"

Best Screenplay: Diablo Cody, "Juno"

Best Animated Feature: "Ratatouille"

Best Foreign-Language Film: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"

Best Score: "Atonement"

Original Song: "That's How You Know," from "Enchanted"

The Writer's Guild of America nominations were just announced this afternoon. For best adapted screenplay, the nominees are: "No Country For Old Men," "There Will Be Blood," "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly," "Into the Wild" and "Zodiac." What!? "Zodiac." That means "Atonement" was snubbed again. Really? For screenplay -- it's such a masterful adaptation of the book. This can only mean one thing: the frontrunner is ... dead. They better get Keira Knightley on the campaign trail now, to shed some tears.

For best original screenplay, the nominees are "Juno," "Michael Clayton," "The Savages," "Knocked Up" and "Lars and the Real Girl."

Playing a little catch up--sorry I haven't posted more in the last few days. I'm starting to think "Atonement" might not get nominated for best picture, and that maybe it really is this year's "Cold Mountain": a beautiful, epic movie that's just a little too packaged for the Academy. There was no love from the SAGs. Then Joe Wright was snubbed by the Directors Guild of America this week.

So was Tim Burton for "Sweeney Todd." (Another movie that didn't get any love from the SAGs.) This means both movies are extremely vulnerable for best picture, despite what all the Oscar bloggers (I'm guilty too) have been predicting all year. I think the Directors Guild nominations are very close to what we'll see in the top five for best picture: "There Will Be Blood," "No Country For Old Men," "Michael Clayton," "Into the Wild," "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly."

The wild card: "Juno." 

The GoldDigger has returned. Thoughts from my voyage through the state of California:

 (1) "Atonement." Informal survey of everyone I know who's seen the film: ehh, it's ok. Not that any of my friends are members of the Academy. But I'm starting to feel like I'm in the minority as someone who really loves the film. Maybe I'm just getting cold feet because the Screen Actors Guild snubbed it completely--but is there a chance that "Atonement" will be this year's "Dreamgirls" or "Cold Mountain"? Can it miss out on a best picture nomination, because everyone's in love with something else, and not enough voters mark it as No. 1 on their ballots? I hope not.

(2) "Sweeney Todd." If "Atonement," isn't this year's "Dreamgirls," then maybe Tim Burton's musical is. In two weeks, it's made $30.5 million at the box office (even "Charlie Wilson's War" is ahead with $43.2). Yes, it's in limited release. But it's playing on 1,249 screens, compared to "Juno's" 998 screens. And "Juno" has a far higher per screen average, bringing home $31.1 million so far. Which brings me to ...

(3) "Juno." Actually, that's the movie I want to talk about. I went to see it again, in a full-house stadium screen at my hometown theater in Fresno, Calif. You know what? It's really a lovely film. It came in at No. 5 this weekend at the box office, building buzz just as members of the Academy are filling out their ballots (Roger Ebert named it the best film of the year). A few weeks ago, I was worried it would get lost in the shuffle and miss out on a best picture nomination. But not so much anymore. I think it'll slip into the final five.