This has been a very difficult year to predict the Oscars, and not just because there might not be an Oscars night. Three months ago, the frontrunners for best picture were "Atonement," "Sweeney Todd," "Charlie Wilson's War" and "American Gangster." Now it's unlikely that even one of those films will be nominated. If "Atonement"  doesn't make the final cut, it'll mark a dramatic shift for the Academy, which has traditionally honored more safe, sentimental stories over experimental ones ("There Will Be Blood"). Or maybe we're in for some more surprises yet. Here's what I think we'll see when the Oscars nominees are announced Tuesday morning:

(1) "Atonement" will get snubbed for best picture. If someone wrote that sentence last November, we'd all think he was nuts. But this year's Oscar frontrunner has been shut out of being nominated for any of the major guild awards, and the guilds largely make up the academy. If "Atonement" does slip in, it will only be because enough voters ranked it as their No. 1 movie of the year. (The Oscar ballots are counted through a complicated preferential system of voting.) But that doesn't seem likely. Although "Atonement" won the Globe and swept the Bafta nominations, it just doesn't seem to be connecting with American viewers in the same way.

So what's in? "No Country for Old Men" is a lock. "Juno" is the quirky underdog that everyone loves, and the biggest box office hit in the running (unless you count "American Gangster," which I don't). "Michael Clayton" is the kind of adult thriller Hollywood eats up. "There Will Be Blood" is being called a modern day classic. And "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" is the emotional favorite and should get enough No. 1 votes to make the cut. I want to include "Into the Wild" on that list too, but there isn't room. So it will likely just fall short of the nomination.

(2) Johnny Depp won't get nominated either. The lead actor category is incredibly competitive this year. Daniel Day-Lewis is the frontrunner for "There Will be Blood," and George Clooney is in for "Michael Clayton." The rest is up in the air. The Academy likes to mix up this category with a couple new faces each year, so two of the following will make the cut: Viggo Mortensen for "Eastern Promises," James McAvoy for "Atonement," Emile Hirsch for "Into the Wild" and Ryan Gosling for "Lars and the Real Girl" (he's been nominated before, but he's still young enough to be considered a newcomer). The last spot is a battle between the veterans Depp in "Sweeney Todd" and Denzel Washington in "American Gangster." My rule when it comes to the Oscars is don't bet against Denzel. Final five: Day-Lewis, Clooney, Mortensen, Gosling and Washington.

(3) Amy Adams will sneak into the best actress category for "Enchanted." Before we get to her, let's look at the other nominees. Three are shoe ins: Julie Christie for "Away from Her," Marion Cotillard for "La Vie En Rose" and Ellen Page for "Juno." The fourth slot will likely go to Angelina Jolie for "A Mighty Heart." Keira Knightley will probably be shut out for "Atonement." Laura Linney is brilliant in "The Savages" but the performance was largely ignored. Which is why Adams will round out the category for her crowd pleasing turn as a princess. Plus, Hollywood has already crowned her as its next princess--she's backing four movies next year.

(4) Jennifer Garner is the bellwether nominee. If she lands a supporting nod for "Juno," then maybe the movie does have what it takes to win everything. After all, it's hard to love the movie and not admire her work as the emotional center of the film, though she hasn't been recognized for anything until now. Final five for best supporting actress: Amy Ryan for "Gone Baby Gone," Cate Blanchett for "I'm Not There," Tilda Swinton for "Michael Clayton," Saoirse Ronan for "Atonement" and Garner.

Other predictions:

Best supporting actor: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men," Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War," Hal Halbrook, "Into the Wild," Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton," and Casey Affleck for "The Assassination of Jesse James."

Best director: the Coen brothers, "No Country For Old Men," Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly," Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood," Sean Penn, "Into the Wild" and Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton."

Best original screenplay: "Juno," "Michael Clayton," "Lars and the Real Girl," "The Savages" and "Knocked Up."

Best adapted screenplay: "No Country for Old Men," "There Will Be Blood," "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly," "Into the Wild" and "Atonement."

Best animated film: "Ratatouille," "The Simpsons Movie" and "Persepolis."