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  • There Goes The 401(K)

    Newsweek | Dec 13, 2008 09:15 AM
    By Jane Bryant Quinn
    December 22, 2008 issue 


    Illustration: Phil Marden for Newsweek

    In October, when the stock market went into free-fall, I did the sensible thing. I panicked. I e-mailed the adviser who manages my retirement money: “OMG, have I been too heavily in stocks? Should we get some of it out, before things get worse? Help!”

    I realize that people like me aren’t supposed to send e-mails like that, but I couldn’t stop myself. My brain told me, “Follow your system; history says it works.” My gut cried, “Are you crazy? Save what you can!”

    Fear makes you stupid. To be on the other end of unhinged e-mails like this is what advisers are for. Mine reminded me about crises past and how stocks had recovered. Still, under his calm, his gut was screaming, too. “It’s a dangerous time,” he couldn’t stop himself from saying.

    Besides my retirement account, I have a taxable account that I manage myself. Both are invested in low-cost, no-load mutual funds, allocated across various types of securities. Both are rebalanced periodically to maintain their original allocations. I should be weathering this shock as I did all previous ones: make regular contributions, rebalance and wait.

    But this is the kind of collapse that sends you back to first principles. Were my allocations right in the first place? Stressed financial planners are asking themselves the same thing.

    Take the question of safety. Planners traditionally have said, “Keep money safe if you’ll need it within two or three years,” for expenses such as tuition, taxes, buying a house or future daily bills. Money you won’t touch for longer periods can go into riskier investments, for higher returns.

    That worked fine in the three market cycles during 1980 to 2000. After stocks dropped, it took less than two years for them to recover their previous peaks.

    Then came the 2000–2002 bear market, which took more than six years to recover, followed by the current plunge. In a classic case of barn-door thinking, planners are reworking their definition of “safe.” Many now say that money needed in the next five years should go into bank CDs, bank money-market accounts and short-term bond funds. These investments pay more than you’d get from money funds that buy Treasuries, many of which now cost more in fees than the near-zero interest you earn. Treasury bonds are the only investment bubble left.

    My OMG question was whether I had put too much of my retirement account into stocks. The rule of thumb is to subtract your age from 110 and consider that the percentage of your portfolio to put at risk. If you’re 50, you’d go 60 percent into stocks with 40 percent in bonds.

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  • A Buyer’s Market at Last

    Newsweek | Dec 13, 2008 09:10 AM
    By Linda Stern
    December 22, 2008 issue

    Sunday Open Houses are starting to look a lot more attractive, and it’s not just because the sellers baked brownies and slapped on another coat of paint. Since 2006, the peak of the housing boom, prices have dropped nationally by 18 percent and the rates on 30-year fixed mortgages have fallen from 6.8 percent to 5.5 percent. That means the average monthly mortgage payment has dropped from more than $1,000 to $894. The bottom line? Says Rich Arzaga, an independent financial adviser who teaches real estate investing at University of California, Berkeley, “Money is cheap, the homes are affordable, and sellers are really very desperate.”

    That doesn’t mean you should run out and buy a house today; you can take your time to find the perfect home. The market is likely to bump along the bottom for a while, say analysts, and some markets may not hit their absolute rock-bottom prices for weeks or months—or even, in some vulnerable markets, years. But if you’re a first-time home buyer or a preretiree looking to line up your place in the sun (and you’re lucky enough to be able to afford one in this economy), start shopping now. Here’s why.

    Good deals for snowbirds. Retirement hot spots like Florida, Nevada and Arizona have been particularly hard hit with falling prices. There are more than 21,000 homes for sale in Vegas; more than 5,000 in Boca Raton, almost 15,000 in Phoenix. That means lots of choice and room to bargain on price. If you’re intending to move to one of those areas, it makes sense to vacation there this winter and start checking out the market. In the three to five years it takes you to relocate, prices and rates are likely to solidify. There are already signs of slowing inventories and firming prices in some spots, like San Diego. But be careful: if you buy into a condo development that has many empty units, you can expect your monthly condo fees to rise significantly, to cover all those no-shows. And don’t count on rental income in those communities-in-crisis.

    A bird in the hand. Don’t wait for the government-backed 4.5 percent rate that Treasury Department sources floated recently. It may never materialize, what with opposition from troubled banks and existing homeowners, and skepticism that it is the economic tool most needed now. Current rates are grazing their 45-year lows as it is, says Keith Gumbinger of HSH Associates, a mortgage-research firm. And they are as likely to head back up as they are to fall further.

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  • A Toast To the Slump

    Newsweek | Dec 13, 2008 09:07 AM
    By Tara Weingarten
    December 22, 2008 issue

    Cheer up. There’s still one bright spot in the economy: sales of value wines (under $9) are up 5.3 percent in the last three months, reports A.C. Nielsen. That’s because, even in this grim economy, we need to maintain some semblance of holiday cheer. Even better news: sales of premium wines are down 10 percent, and deals abound. You may be able to treat your guests to the good stuff, after all.

    If you’re one of the few who still have some extra bucks tucked away, try the Super Tuscan Ornellaia and Sassicaia, two of Italy’s most expensive wines. Wally’s premium wine store in Los Angeles (wallywine.com) is discounting them 20 percent. Sassicaia usually sells for $270 at Wally’s; now it’s $216.

    If you’re still reluctant to drop the big money, there are plenty of bargains out there in the midrange prices. At Hartwickandgrove.com, a delicious 2005 Ravenswood Merlot Sangiacomo, which normally retails for $30, is on sale for $21. And the boutique producer Martini is selling its Sonoma Cabernet Sauvignon for $11.99 instead of the usual $19.99 at PlumpJackwines.com. If you don’t see a price you like, try bargaining. In this retail climate, you may just get what you want.

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  • Checklist

    Newsweek | Dec 13, 2008 09:06 AM
     

    December 22, 2008 issue

    Our top picks for the week.

    Rent “Generation Kill.” This Iraq War miniseries from “The Wire” creator David Simon follows a group of hard-core Marines on their tour of duty. Like Simon’s other programs, “Kill” can feel like homework, with its large cast of characters who speak tactical jargon like bards, but it unfolds in surprising ways that reward the massive investment required.

    Hear Elizabeth Willis’s self-titled album. This rich collection of soulful ballads couples raw lyrics with symphonic influence. Classically trained from the age of 4 in piano and violin, Willis is a folk artist in a class all her own. Standout track: “In Your Eyes.”

    Eat honeybells. This cross between a tangerine and a grapefruit is available for only a few short weeks in January. Order a crate now ($34.99 for nine; honeybell.com) and have something to look forward to in the New Year.

    See “First Ladies at the Smithsonian” at the National Museum of American History in Washington, D.C. (american history.si.edu). On display are 14 Inaugural gowns as old as Martha Washington’s and as new as Laura Bush’s. The show discusses the country’s expectations of First Ladies and their contributions. Check back next year to see what Michelle wore.

    Surf handmedowns.com. Need extra cash, cheap kids’ clothes or both? Sell used clothing or find it at this new Craigslist for thrifty parents, which operates in 20 cities.

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