By Benjamin Sutherland
How might the United States ratchet up pressure on foreign enemies and threats, wherever they are on the globe, while reducing the need to station warships, planes, and troops within striking distance? A new type of weapon might do the trick--and even facilitate President Barack Obama's efforts to reduce the U.S. arsenal of nuclear warheads, which are of limited use against terrorists anyway.
THE IDEA: The Department of Defense is designing nonnuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles, which could be operational in less than two years. Packed with conventional explosives, they would be able to strike pretty much anywhere on the planet within one hour. ICBMs travel above the atmosphere, so they avoid most radar systems and the airspace of countries en route. For this capability, the U.S. is "willing to pay a great deal," says Mark Lewis, the Air Force's top technology official until his retirement this year.
THE EVIDENCE: For some strikes, warplanes and cruise missiles are too slow, too vulnerable to air defenses, and too short range. In 1998, for example, by the time U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from the Arabian Sea reached an Al Qaeda training camp in Afghanistan, Osama bin Laden had left, according to Richard Clarke, the top counterterrorism adviser to President Bill Clinton at the time. Today's fastest cruise missiles fly less than three times the speed of sound; ICBMs fly more than 15 times the speed of sound.
The U.S. Air Force, Army, and Navy have all proposed different versions of "prompt global strike" systems. Some require new, sophisticated technologies, especially for greater in-flight maneuverability. But the military learned how to deliver ICBMs decades ago, so "there's no rocket science left to do," says Tom Collina, research chief at the Arms Control Association in Washington, D.C.
The Pentagon's upcoming Quadrennial Defense Review is expected to accord more importance to nonnuclear ICBMs, says Nathan Hughes, a defense expert at STRATFOR, a consultancy in Austin, Texas. Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is an enthusiastic proponent. Despite recent moves to appease Russia on missile defenses in Europe, the Obama team is resisting Moscow's calls to stop work on the new ICBMs.
THE CONCLUSION: Though the new ICBMs would be designed to be distinguishable from the atomic kind, there is a risk that Russia or another power might mistake a nonnuke ICBM strike in a nearby country for a nuclear strike at its homeland. The innovation could also kindle a new arms race, encouraging Russia and others to develop better weapons to withstand, and counter, a U.S. attack. The Obama administration will have to decide if potential blowback like that might turn a fearsome weapon into a fearsome liability.
